申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250703

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of gold and silver rebounded. The unexpected decrease in the US ADP employment in June intensified the market's expectation of an early interest rate cut by the Fed this year. The approaching deadline for the suspension of reciprocal tariffs made the market uneasy, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill raised the expectation of fiscal deficit, leading to a weak US dollar. Although Fed officials continued to maintain a wait - and - see attitude and mentioned the possibility of a rate cut as early as July with pre - conditions, the progress of trade negotiations was limited. The market might be paving the way for future easing, and if tariff policies became clear, the expectation of rate cut would be further clarified. Gold faced hesitation in upward movement due to its high price, and investors should be vigilant about the uncertainty of Trump's policies and the hype of tariff escalation as the July tariff suspension deadline approached [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: The current prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 775.90, 780.04, 8830.00, and 8872.00 respectively, with daily increases of 2.16 (0.28%), 2.04 (0.26%), 83.00 (0.95%), and 87.00 (0.99%) [2]. - Position and Volume: The positions of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were 103401, 83453, 249023, and 174093 respectively, and the trading volumes were 73175, 21045, 323881, and 34757 respectively [2]. - Spot Premium: The spot premiums of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 were - 5.57, - 9.71, - 93.00, and - 135.00 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and London Gold (in USD/oz) were 770.33, 773.00, and 3356.93 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.71 (- 0.22%), 4.21 (0.55%), and 19.6 (0.59%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 8737.00, with a daily change of - 68.00 (- 0.77%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in USD/oz) was 36.55, with a daily change of 0.53 (1.48%) [2]. - Price Spreads: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506,沪银2512 - 沪银2506, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver were 4.14, 42, 88.17, 7.14, and 7.44 respectively, compared with previous values of 4.26, 38, 87.68, 7.20, and 7.60 [2]. Inventory - The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver were 18,456 kg, 1,338,659 kg, 37,048,200 units, and 500,183,447 units respectively, with changes of 3.00 kg, - 185.00 kg, no change, and - 1026742 units compared to the previous values [2]. Related Markets - Indices and Rates: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and USD/CNY were 96.7788, 6227.42, 4.3, 69.15, and 7.1617 respectively, with daily changes of 0.14%, 0.47%, 0.94%, 0.01%, and 0.00% [2]. - Derivatives: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF, SLV Silver ETF, CFTC speculators' net position in silver, and CFTC speculators' net position in gold were 44315 tons, 44315 tons, 33486 units, and 32895 units respectively, with daily changes of 1.00 ton, 1.00 ton, 481 units, and - 1451 units [2]. Macro News - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, far below the expected increase of 98,000. Service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September [3]. - EU Commission President von der Leyen met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Brussels. Wang Yi said that the upcoming China - EU leaders' meeting was an important one at a critical juncture. China hoped to summarize the past 50 - year experience of China - EU relations, plan the future 50 - year cooperation, and send positive signals. China was willing to deepen economic and trade cooperation with the EU [3]. - The US Department of Defense said that the Iranian nuclear facilities were estimated to have been destroyed, and the Iranian nuclear program was postponed by about 1 - 2 years [3]. - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnam's exports to the US would be subject to a 20% tariff, and trans - shipped goods would be subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [3].