Donghai Securities·2025-07-03 08:08Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, highlighting structural opportunities in AI computing, AIOT, semiconductor equipment, and key components [4]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry showed signs of recovery in June 2025, with increasing prices and improving demand across various segments, including smartphones, tablets, TWS headphones, wearable devices, smart home products, AI servers, and new energy vehicles [4][5]. - The report indicates that the overall semiconductor demand is expected to continue its recovery into July, despite high inventory levels and relatively abundant supply in the short term [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI innovations, with new consumer electronics products being launched, such as AI glasses from Xiaomi and Meta, which are expected to drive demand in the sector [4][5]. Monthly Market Review - The semiconductor sector experienced a 5.96% increase in June, outperforming the broader market, which saw a 2.50% rise in the CSI 300 index [11][13]. - The semiconductor industry's valuation metrics, including PE and PB ratios, are currently at high historical percentiles, indicating a strong market sentiment towards the sector [21][22]. Semiconductor Supply and Demand Data - Global semiconductor sales in April 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 22.68%, with a cumulative growth of 18.93% from January to April 2025, reflecting a robust recovery in demand [4]. - The report notes significant price increases in memory chips, particularly DDR4, driven by supply constraints and increased market demand [4]. Downstream Demand Tracking and Forecast - The report highlights that downstream demand for semiconductors is strong in TWS headphones, wearable devices, AI servers, and new energy vehicles, with notable growth rates in these segments [4][5]. - Global smartphone shipments in Q1 2025 increased by 1.53%, while new energy vehicle sales saw a year-on-year growth of 19.08% in April 2025 [4]. Industry News Highlights - The report mentions significant developments in AI infrastructure, including Nvidia's plans to build AI factories in Europe and the release of new AI products by major tech companies [5]. - The report suggests that the semiconductor industry is likely to benefit from ongoing AI innovations and the expansion of the ASIC market, with projections for the market size to increase from $75 billion to $94 billion by 2028 [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to consider leading companies in the AIOT sector, such as Lexin Technology and Hanguang Technology, as well as those involved in AI-driven innovations and domestic supply chain replacements [5].