贵金属数据日报-20250703

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Gold prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the center of gravity gradually rising. Uncertainty about tariff policies boosts safe - haven demand, and the tax and spending bill increases US debt, which is beneficial for gold in the long - term. However, the Fed Chair's stance on July rate cuts and the possible rebound of the US dollar index may suppress precious metals. Silver is expected to follow gold's rise but may face limitations due to the slowdown of related metals and its own demand [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: Against the backdrop of the trade war, the Fed still has a certain probability of cutting rates this year. With global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, central banks' gold purchases continue, strengthening gold's monetary attribute. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking of Precious Metals - Precious Metal Prices: On July 2, 2025, London gold spot was $3331.81/ounce, London silver spot was $35.95/ounce. Compared with July 1, gold prices were mostly flat, while silver prices declined, with London silver spot down 0.8% [3]. - Price Differences and Ratios: The price difference between gold TD and SHFE active contract decreased by 25.7%, and the price difference between silver TD and SHFE active contract decreased by 50.0%. The ratio of SHFE gold and silver main contracts increased by 0.7%, and the ratio of COMEX gold and silver main contracts increased by 1.0% [3]. 3.2 Position and Inventory Data - Position Data: As of July 1, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 948.23 tons, down 0.45% from June 30. COMEX gold non - commercial net long positions decreased by 2.81%, and COMEX silver non - commercial net long positions decreased by 6.29% [3]. - Inventory Data: On July 2, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 18456.00 kg, up 0.02% from July 1, and SHFE silver inventory was 1338659.00 kg, down 0.01%. COMEX gold inventory remained unchanged, and COMEX silver inventory increased by 0.30% [3]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - US Economic Data: As of July 2, 2025, the US dollar index was 96.65, up 0.02% from July 1. The 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.61%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.60% [4]. - Other Market Data: The S&P 500 index increased by 0.47%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 0.11% [4]. 3.4 Market News and Analysis - Fed's Stance: Fed Chair Powell said most Fed members expect rate cuts later this year, and it's uncertain whether a July rate cut is too early. He also mentioned that the Trump tariff policy has affected the Fed's decision - making [4]. - US Economic Indicators: The US June ISM manufacturing PMI was 49, better than expected. The May JOLTs job openings were 776.9 million, higher than expected [4]. - Policy News: On July 1, the US Senate passed a comprehensive tax - cut and spending bill, which was submitted to the House of Representatives for a vote on July 2 [4]. - Geopolitical News: Iran's President approved the suspension of cooperation with the IAEA, and Trump said he would not extend the July 9 deadline for trade negotiations [4].