航运衍生品数据日报-20250703

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the JOLTS data release, traders slightly reduced the expected rate cut by the Fed, with a 21% chance of a rate cut in July and an expected start of rate cuts in September [3] - The White House indicated that Trump might extend the 90 - day tariff suspension period in July [5] - Trump plans to visit China with dozens of CEOs [5] - Fed Chair Powell stated that a “substantial majority” of Fed members expect rate cuts later this year [5] - Trump's tariff policy and low river levels have caused the worst supply - chain congestion in European ports since the pandemic, expected to last at least several months [5] - US officials are seeking phased agreements with actively - involved trade negotiation countries, aiming for an agreement by July 9 [6] - The EC market shows weak oscillations [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - SCFI and CCFI: The current value of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCFI) is 1862, down 0.43% from the previous value; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1369, up 2.00% [3] - Regional SCFI: SCFI - US West is 2578, down 7.00%; SCFIS - US West is 161, down 22.28%; SCFI - US East is 4717, down 11.86%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2030, up 10.63%; SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2123, up 9.60%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 2985, down 2.55% [3] 3.2 EC Futures - Futures Prices: For contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc., prices mostly declined, with EC2506 at 1310.0, down 0.92% [3] - Open Interest: EC2606 open interest increased by 82 to 352, while EC2508 decreased by 4141 to 36335 [3] - Calendar Spreads: The 10 - 12 spread is 515.6, down 5.5; the 12 - 2 spread is - 160.1, down 5.9; the 12 - 4 spread is 353.8, up 3.6 [3] 3.3 Spot Market - The central price in the second week of July is about 3200 (range 2900 - 3600). Maersk's price rose slightly from 2900 to 2960 in the second week, and the Shanghai - Rotterdam sailing price is 2950, higher than the expected decline [8] - There is a market differentiation, with some OCEAN Alliance routes having strong quotes and PA Alliance planning to raise prices later, but some shipping companies reported reduced inventory [8] - HPL's quotes show relatively sufficient cabin space, and shipping companies are still trying to attract cargo [8] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread long position and pay attention to the 8 - 10 calendar spread. Due to less shipping capacity in weeks 28 and 30, Maersk's strong cabin opening in week 3 of July, and the expected European congestion, contract 08 may perform stronger than 10 [9]