日度策略参考-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, PE, PVC [1] - Bearish: Silver, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Carbonate Lithium, Cotton, Pulp, Logs, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] - Neutral (Oscillating): Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Gold, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Carbonate Lithium, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Sinter, Ferroalloy, Glass, Soda Ash, Bitumen, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, PE, PP, PVC, Chlor - Alkali [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking, and with mediocre domestic and foreign positive factors, the stock index faces resistance in breaking upward and may show an oscillating pattern. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest - rate risk warning restricts the upward space. The price of gold is supported by factors such as renewed tariff uncertainties and the passage of the US tax - reform bill in the Senate, but the slowdown of the US dollar index decline requires vigilance against the suppression of the gold price by a staged rebound. The macro and commodity attributes support the silver price, but the fundamentals limit its upside. Copper prices are strong in the short term due to the recovery of market risk appetite and the fermentation of the squeeze - out situation of US copper and LME copper. Aluminum prices are strong due to the low - level operation of electrolytic aluminum inventories and the improvement of market risk appetite. The overall market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs and changes in domestic and foreign economic data [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock Index: Short - term upward breakthrough is difficult, may oscillate, and follow - up focus on macro incremental information [1] - Treasury Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term upward space is restricted by interest - rate risk warning [1] - Gold: Supported by tariff uncertainties and tax - reform bill, but beware of the impact of the US dollar index rebound [1] - Silver: Supported by macro and commodity attributes, but limited by fundamentals [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Strong in the short term due to risk - appetite recovery and squeeze - out situation [1] - Aluminum: Strong due to low inventory and improved market sentiment [1] - Alumina: Maintains a strong operation [1] - Zinc: Affected by news in the short term, beware of risks in short - selling [1] - Nickel: Rebounds in the short term but limited upside, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - Stainless Steel: Short - term oscillating rebound, long - term supply pressure remains [1] - Tin: Rebounds due to improved macro sentiment, follow - up focus on imports [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish due to production cuts and high market sentiment [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish due to supply - side reform expectations and high market sentiment [1] - Carbonate Lithium: Oscillates due to stable supply and weak downstream procurement [1] Black Metals - Rebar: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Oscillates due to short - term factory production restrictions [1] - Iron Ore: Oscillates with limited upside due to factory production restrictions and high short - term demand [1] - Sinter: Price is under pressure due to increased short - term production and weakening demand [1] - Ferroalloy: Excess pressure remains due to cost and demand factors [1] - Glass: Supply is stable in the short term, demand is resilient, but medium - term supply - demand surplus exists [1] - Soda Ash: Supply is disturbed, but demand is weak, and cost support is weakened [1] - Coke: Similar to coking coal, focus on futures premium for selling hedging [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Bullish in the short term, follow - up focus on hearings and supply - demand reports [1] - Soybean Oil: Similar to palm oil [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Similar to palm oil [1] - Cotton: Expected to oscillate weakly, affected by trade negotiations and weather in the short term, and macro uncertainties in the long term [1] - Sugar: Brazilian production is expected to increase, and pay attention to the impact of crude oil on the sugar - production ratio [1] - Corn: Expected to oscillate, with limited decline in the futures market, and C01 can be shorted at high prices [1] - Soybean Meal: Near - term inventory is expected to accumulate, and MO1 can be bought at low prices [1] - Pulp: Bearish due to falling prices, increased shipments, and weak domestic demand [1] - Logs: Weak due to off - season and limited supply decline [1] - Live Pigs: Futures are stable due to the continued recovery of inventory and limited decline in spot prices [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Oscillates due to geopolitical cooling, possible OPEC+ production increase, and consumption - season support [1] - Fuel Oil: Similar to crude oil [1] - Asphalt: Bearish due to cost drag, possible tax - refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - Natural Rubber: Bearish due to weakening demand, expected production increase, and inventory increase [1] - BR Rubber: Weak in the short term, follow - up focus on price adjustments and de - stocking progress [1] - PTA: Oscillates due to weakening basis, delayed plant maintenance, and strong PX floating [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bearish due to large expected arrivals and negative macro - sentiment impact [1] - Short - Fiber: Oscillates, with low warehouse - receipt registration and cost following closely [1] - Styrene: Bearish due to weakening speculative demand, increased device load, and strong basis [1] - PE: Oscillates strongly due to good macro - sentiment, many overhauls, and rigid demand [1] - PP: Oscillates strongly due to limited overhaul support, rigid orders, and market sentiment [1] - PVC: Oscillates strongly due to policy support, upcoming new - device production, and seasonal demand changes [1] - Chlor - Alkali: Oscillates, follow - up focus on liquid - chlorine changes [1] - LPG: Bearish due to price cuts, seasonal demand decline, and narrow price difference [1] - Container Shipping European Line: Expected to peak in mid - July, with sufficient subsequent capacity [1]