债券策略月报：2025年7月中债市场月度展望及配置策略-20250703

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Chinese capital market showed mixed performance in May, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.42% and 3.27% respectively, closing at 3457.8 and 10476.3 [3][11] - The bond market experienced a positive response as potential negative variables related to tariff negotiations and regulatory concerns were resolved, leading to a greater decline in short-term rates compared to long-term rates [3][11] - The report suggests that while there may not be significant directional opportunities in the bond market, the injection of incremental funds from insurance, wealth management, and banks in July could lead to a gradual decline in interest rates [6][11] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment in May showed a mixed picture, with GDP growth estimated at approximately 5.35% year-on-year, driven by strong consumer demand, while exports, investments, and real estate sales showed varying degrees of slowdown [5][33] - The manufacturing PMI for June recorded at 49.7%, indicating a slight recovery, although employment and service sector indicators showed a decline [5][33] - The report notes that the central bank's monetary policy stance has become clearer, with expectations of no immediate rate cuts, reflecting a more hawkish tone in the second quarter meeting [5][82] Group 3 - The report indicates that government bond issuance pressure in June was higher than in May, with a net issuance of 33,802 billion yuan, which is significantly more than the previous year [17][18] - The anticipated net issuance of government bonds in July is expected to range between 1.46 to 1.60 trillion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level [18] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of external economic factors, particularly U.S. monetary policy, on the Chinese bond market [86][90]