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瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250703

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - Short - term supply decreases due to farmers' price - holding and reduced weight of pigs for sale at the beginning of the month, but there is a risk of delayed supply in the third quarter as sow production capacity is in an increasing cycle. High temperatures and school holidays suppress pork demand, resulting in slow terminal sales and a decline in slaughterhouse operating rates. The entry of second - fattening investors boosts the near - month price of live pigs. Continuous attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm and the entry rhythm of second - fattening investors [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 14,370 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 79,652 lots, down 4,273 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 450 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,158 lots, down 2,550 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian is 15,400 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 14,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu is 17,500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan. The basis of the main live - pig contract is 1,030 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The monthly live - pig inventory is 41.731 million heads, down 1.012 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4.042 million heads, up 4,000 heads. The monthly CPI year - on - year change is - 0.1%, unchanged. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,436.86 yuan/ton, up 0.19 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 950.52, up 1.21. The monthly output of feed is 27.621 million tons, up 981,000 tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,640 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit for purchasing piglets is - 131.71 yuan/head, up 55.08 yuan; for self - breeding and self - raising is 50.25 yuan/head, up 30.85 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons. The weekly average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live - pig slaughtering enterprises is 32.16 million heads, up 1.39 million heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail is 457.82 billion yuan, up 41.12 billion yuan [2] Industry News - According to Mysteel data, the planned live - pig output of key provincial breeding enterprises in July 2025 is 13.005 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. At the beginning of the month, farmers hold prices and reduce the volume of pigs for sale, and the average weight of pigs for sale decreases, resulting in a short - term reduction in supply. The sow production capacity in the third quarter is in an increasing cycle, with a risk of delayed supply [2]