Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-03 08:58Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On July 3, 2025, the apple market showed a weak trend. The new - season apple in Shaanxi is expected to have a 5% - 10% reduction in production compared to last year. The current inventory is at a five - year low, which strongly supports the price. However, due to the listing of summer fruits, the demand for apples is weak, and the selling intention of fruit farmers has increased after bagging. The apple market will run slightly stronger in the short - term with oscillations. Follow - up attention should be paid to the production situation [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 7,764 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 88,743 lots, a decrease of 2,756 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is 6,696 lots, an increase of 1,406 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of apples in Shandong Yantai Qixia (paper - bagged, above 80) is 4.1 yuan/jin, and in Gansu Jingning (paper - bagged, above 75) is 4.5 yuan/jin. The spot price in Shandong Yiyuan (paper - bagged, above 75) is 2.6 yuan/jin, and in Shaanxi Luochuan (paper - bagged, above 70) is 4.2 yuan/jin [2] Upstream Situation - The national apple orchard area is 1,955.77 thousand hectares, a decrease of 19.58 thousand hectares. The national apple production is 5,128.51 million tons. The weekly average wholesale price of apples is 9.73 yuan/kg, and that of Fuji apples is 9.51 yuan/kg. The national apple cold - storage inventory is 99.31 million tons, a decrease of 7.6 million tons. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong is 13.98%, a decrease of 0.78%. The storage capacity ratio in Shaanxi is 6.43%, a decrease of 0.68%. The monthly apple export volume is 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh, dried fruits and nuts is 2,201,050.17 million US dollars, and the monthly apple export amount is 5,152.5 million US dollars. The weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apple storage merchants is 0.9 yuan/jin [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale price of tangerines is 8.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.18 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of pears is 6.68 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of bananas is 6.47 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg. The weekly average wholesale price of watermelons is 3.96 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/kg. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen wholesale market is 7.8, a decrease of 2.45. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Xiaqiao wholesale market is 11, a decrease of 3.25. The daily average number of trucks arriving in the morning at the Guangdong Chalong wholesale market is 18.8, a decrease of 3.45 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for apples is 17.26%, an increase of 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for apples is 17.26%, an increase of 0.12% [2] Industry News - On July 3, 2025, the apple production area trading was light. The remaining goods in the western production area were few, mainly self - stored goods of merchants. In the Shandong production area, the price of merchant goods was stable, while the price of fruit - farmer goods was affected by quality, showing a differentiated market [2]