白银行情分析及展望：补涨预期与波动风险并存

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the easing of global trade frictions, the market focuses on the silver catch - up market. Short - term catch - up expectations may drive the silver price to break through upwards, but there are still uncertainties in interest rate cuts and economic expectations, and sudden risk events may increase the long - position holding pressure [2] - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile throughout the year, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. Fed's long - term loose monetary policy and expected 2 interest rate cuts this year drive the silver price, but in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts, the gold - silver ratio rises, and the industrial demand for silver is expected to decline negatively in 2025, which may put pressure on the silver price [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, Trump's policies and increased market expectations of Fed's interest rate cuts to 4 times promoted the silver price to run strongly. In the second quarter, Trump's tariff policies and Fed's attitude of not being eager to cut interest rates led to a short - term silver price plunge, but later the suspension of tariff implementation and the easing of Sino - US trade relations pushed the silver price to a new high in June [11] 2. Silver Catch - up Logic 2.1 Gold - Silver Ratio - The gold - silver ratio reflects the price relationship between gold and silver. Its central value has been rising. The change is affected by factors such as the US dollar credit and economic expectations. A decline in the gold - silver ratio usually occurs in the economic expansion stage, while an increase occurs in the stage of rising economic uncertainty [15][20] 2.2 Comparison of Gold and Silver Performance in Bull Markets - There have been three major bull markets in the history of gold and silver prices. In the first stage of each bull market, the gold price usually starts to rise first, and in the second stage, the silver price is likely to start first. In 5 out of 6 upward stages, the silver price outperformed the gold price [22] 2.3 Conditions for Silver to Start Catch - up - When the future economic certainty increases or there is no recession expectation and inflation is expected to rise, the gold - silver ratio will usually be repaired downward. Currently, it is not a suitable stage for silver catch - up trading due to economic uncertainties and uncertainties in Fed's interest rate cuts this year [26][27] 3. Investment Demand Analysis 3.1 Real Interest Rate Analysis - The real interest rate represented by TIPS yield is negatively correlated with the silver ETP position. The real interest rate is affected by the nominal interest rate and inflation expectations. The market's expectation of Fed's interest rate cuts this year has changed, and currently, the market expects 2 interest rate cuts this year [33] 3.2 Future Investment Demand Analysis - Fed is facing a dilemma of rising inflation and economic downturn due to Trump's new policies, and there are many variables in interest rate cuts this year. However, the long - term loose monetary policy is expected to support the long - term investment demand for silver [38] 4. Industrial Demand Analysis 4.1 Photovoltaic Silver Demand Analysis - In 2025, the expected growth rate of photovoltaic silver demand turns negative, mainly affected by the innovation of photovoltaic cell technology and the change of photovoltaic policies. The innovation of photovoltaic cell technology has a significant impact, and policy changes may also reduce the domestic photovoltaic installation expectations [40][41][44] 5. Market Outlook - In 2025, the silver price is expected to be mostly volatile, with the Shanghai silver central reference at 8,000 yuan/kg. The long - term loose monetary policy and expected interest rate cuts support the silver price, but factors such as the rising gold - silver ratio in the middle and late stages of interest rate cuts and the decline in industrial demand may put pressure on the silver price. The tariff policy is a key factor affecting the silver price [48]