Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, domestic soybean meal is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation, and the spot price remains under pressure. The supply - demand balance sheet of US soybeans is expected to remain tight. Under the current China - US tariff policy, domestic soybean meal has a de - stocking expectation. It is recommended to adopt a long - at - low strategy for the far - month M01 contract, while also paying attention to weather and policy changes [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs a. Basis and Spread Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis on July 2nd, in Dalian and Rizhao it was - 4 to - 84 with a change of - 3; in Tianjin it was - 24 with a change of 17; in Zhangjiagang it was - 104 with a change of 17; in Dongguan it was - 104; in Zhanjiang it was - 94 with a change of 17; in Fangcheng it was - 94 with a change of 17. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 108 with a change of - 12. The M9 - 1 spread was - 43 [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 370 with a change of 10, and the futures price difference of the main contract was 366 with a change of - 9 [7] b. International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1179, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 95.00 cents per bushel. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 232 yuan per ton with no change [7] c. Inventory Data - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to be stocked. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, while soybean meal inventory remains at a low level compared to the same period in history, and the number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises continues to increase [7][8] d. Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans has declined to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth [7] - Demand: Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the inventory of poultry remains high, the cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level. In some areas, wheat is replacing corn, reducing the use of protein [7] e. Trading Suggestion - It is recommended to adopt a long - at - low strategy for the far - month M01 contract, while also paying attention to weather and policy changes [8]
蛋白数据日报-20250703
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-07-03 09:03