Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-03 09:17Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price of Shanghai lead will continue to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories will increase slightly, while overseas inventories will accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Given the weakening overseas economic situation, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,245 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,063.5 dollars/ton, up 24.5 dollars. The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead was 87,707 lots, up 3,906 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 60 lots, down 179 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 46,439 tons, up 50 tons. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 51,929 tons, up 638 tons; the LME lead inventory was 268,150 tons, down 1,925 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 17,000 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 17,260 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 245 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 26.77 dollars/ton, up 5.68 dollars [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead was 76.79%, up 2.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 3.58 tons, up 0.01 tons. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,296 yuan, down 7 yuan. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 40 dollars/ton, unchanged. The global lead ore output was 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] 4. Industry Situation - The import volume of refined lead was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the export volume of refined lead was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,151.79 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries (with 2% antimony) was 20,525 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,755.04 points, down 21.88 points. The monthly automobile output was 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle output was 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [2] 6. Industry News - In June in the US, the ADP employment decreased by 33,000 people, the largest decline since March 2023; the number of Challenger corporate layoffs was 47,999 people, the lowest since December 2024. Interest - rate futures almost fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Reeves, might resign, causing the pound and UK bonds to fall [2] 7. View Summary - On the supply side, primary lead smelters increased their operating rates and production due to rising lead prices. The slight recovery of lead prices reduced the loss pressure of secondary lead, but the price of waste batteries remained flat. In the traditional off - season of the second quarter, the demand for battery replacement decreased, and it was difficult to increase the production of secondary lead. On the demand side, the market transaction was weak, and the support for lead prices was limited. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory declined again, and domestic inventory decreased slightly while warehouse receipts increased. The processing fee of lead concentrate started to decline, which would have a negative impact on the subsequent production of secondary and primary lead [2]