海外周报第96期：关税战下的美国抢进口，规模、区域和结构-20250703

Tariff Impact - The effective tariff rate in the U.S. surged to 7% in April 2025, up from 2.3% in 2024, with the rate for imports from China reaching 37.5%[6] - By May 2025, the overall tariff rate further increased to 8.7%[6] Import Surge - U.S. imports exceeded historical trends by approximately $188.3 billion from December 2024 to May 2025, representing 68.6% of the average monthly import value for 2024[6] - The import growth rate is expected to be negatively impacted by about 9.8% in the remaining months of 2025 due to this surge[6] Import Sources - Major regions contributing to the import surge include the Eurozone, ASEAN, Taiwan, Australia, and India, collectively boosting U.S. imports by 11 percentage points in the first four months of 2025[6] - In April 2025, the import growth from these regions was approximately 5.7 percentage points, while the Eurozone's contribution turned negative, detracting 0.1 percentage points[6] Import Methods - Air freight imports surged to 37.1% in January to March 2025, significantly higher than the annual average of 27.6%, before dropping to 31.5% in April[6] - The increase in air freight usage indicates a strategy to expedite imports before tariffs took effect[6] Product Categories - The primary products imported during this period were electronics, pharmaceuticals, and raw metals, which together accounted for an 18.5 percentage point increase in overall import growth from January to April 2025[12] - In April 2025, electronics alone contributed 4.1 percentage points to the import growth, while pharmaceuticals and raw metals also showed significant increases[12]