Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-03 09:39Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the demand side is under great pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory levels. The market sentiment has improved recently due to the issuance of the photovoltaic desert control plan in the three - north desert areas. In the short term, one can buy put options for protection and follow the long position, while in the medium - to - long - term, shorting at high levels is recommended [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polysilicon contract is 35,050 yuan/ton with no change. The main polysilicon position is 76,908 lots, a decrease of 18,097 lots. The price difference between polysilicon in August - September is 745 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. The price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,500 yuan/ton. The basis of polysilicon is 950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan/ton. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.22 US dollars/kg, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/kg. The average prices of cauliflower, dense, and re - feeding polysilicon are 30 yuan/kg, 36 yuan/kg, and 33 yuan/kg respectively, with increases of 2 yuan/kg, 6.5 yuan/kg, and 2 yuan/kg [2] Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main industrial silicon contract is 8,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton. The spot price of industrial silicon is 8,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, a decrease of 36,050 tons. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons. The monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons. The total social inventory of industrial silicon is 542,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 95,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons. The monthly import volume of polysilicon is 793 tons, a decrease of 161 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 4.89 US dollars/kg, an increase of 0.01 US dollars/kg. The monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2.19 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,569,000 kilowatts, a decrease of 1,359,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, an increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 103,399,980 pieces, an increase of 19,610,660 pieces. The monthly import volume is 12,098,490 pieces, a decrease of 8,021,950 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.29 US dollars/piece, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece. The weekly comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 21.67, with no change [2] Industry News - As of July 2, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower polysilicon, N - type dense material, N - type re - feeding material, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are stable. The US Senate Republican leader plans to vote on a bill that restricts new energy, affecting the demand for the new energy industry. Under the guidance of the sixth financial and economic committee, leading photovoltaic enterprises have cut production by 30%, and polysilicon prices have risen [2] Inventory - Polysilicon inventory is at a high level. Silicon wafer enterprises have not fully digested the previously purchased polysilicon, leading to inventory backlog and suppressing market prices [2]