美就业数据不景气，铜价承压

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The international copper market is still in a race with copper tariffs. The tight supply expectation caused by cross - regional flow is the main logic for the upward movement of copper prices. Although the current US employment data is unfavorable and suppresses the copper price, the upward - trending and volatile pattern of copper prices remains unchanged. The follow - up should focus on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, as its impact on the US dollar index will intensify copper price fluctuations [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000, triggering economic recession expectations. On the supply side, as of June 30, 2025, the spot smelting fee was -$43.56 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was -4.35 cents per pound. The supply of copper is still increasing. In terms of inventory, the global copper inventory is being depleted, with LME copper significantly depleted, COMEX copper rapidly accumulating, and domestic copper depletion being relatively slow. On the demand side, affected by the copper tariff event, copper export demand has increased, but the terminal market is weak, and downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and for rigid needs. Except for COMEX copper, inventory depletion in other regions supports the market, and the reduction in imports intensifies the tight domestic supply situation [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the session, and closed down at 80,560. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 1,142 to 142,298 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,251 to 142,218 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 100 yuan per ton, and in South China was 65 yuan per ton. On July 2, 2025, the LME official price was $9,966 per ton, and the spot premium was $79 per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of June 30, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was -$43.56 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was -4.35 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 24,100 tons, a decrease of 994 tons from the previous period. As of June 30, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 61,900 tons, a decrease of 1,400 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 94,300 tons, a slight increase of 1,075 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 213,200 short tons, an increase of 1,032 short tons from the previous period [8].