Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-03 10:16Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The raw material cost support has weakened due to the implementation of the PNBP policy in Indonesia and the planned nickel ore export ban in the Philippines, along with the release of nickel - iron production capacity in Indonesia and the decline in nickel - iron prices. The supply pressure remains as steel mills maintain normal production and the 300 - series stainless steel production, despite cuts, is still at a historical high. Entering the traditional consumption off - season, the macro - market uncertainty increases, export demand is under pressure, and downstream shows a cautious attitude. The domestic inventory de - stocking is poor. Technically, with stable positions and cautious multi - and short - sides, and breaking through the MA10 pressure, it is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless - steel futures main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread is 55 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 92 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 3,370 lots, an increase of 1,656 lots. The main contract position is 94,683 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 111,774 tons, a decrease of 121 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the SS main contract is 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 110 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 23,900 metal tons, an increase of 2,200 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,687.58 tons, a decrease of 1,058.97 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 848,200 tons, an increase of 31,300 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 122,550 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan; the average price of nickel - iron (7 - 10%) nationwide is 910 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome output is 757,800 tons, a decrease of 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly 300 - series stainless - steel output is 1.7847 million tons, a decrease of 39,600 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 619,400 tons, a decrease of 5,900 tons. The monthly stainless - steel export volume is 458,500 tons, a decrease of 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly value of new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters. The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 246,000 units; the monthly output of excavators is 25,800 units, a decrease of 200 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 11,000 units, a decrease of 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The US ADP employment in June unexpectedly decreased by 33,000 people, the first negative growth since March 2023. The service industry lost 66,000 jobs in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two - major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued. According to the preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative wholesale from January to June was 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [2].