沥青策略：逢低做多沥青09-12价差

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy low and go long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Strategy Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1]. - In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall and high temperatures [1]. - Last week, the spot price in the northwest region increased slightly, with a large increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 0.42% to 289,500 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline last week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. The demand in the north is fair [1]. - The intensity of Iran's retaliatory action was less than expected, and Israel and Iran ceased fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Trump announced the termination of the original plan to relax sanctions on Iran [1]. - The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. The Trump administration issued a simplified license to Chevron but prohibited oil production in Venezuela. Trump said the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted the crude oil market sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.25% to 3,588 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,565 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,601 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5,171 to 222,124 lots [2]. Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,815 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 227 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, facilities such as Zhonghai Binzhou and Wenzhou Zhongyou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly declined compared to January - March 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 0.4%, slightly up from - 0.9% from January to April 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, slightly down from 5.8% from January to April 2025 [4]. - As of the week of June 27, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall [4]. - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate of about 4% (1 percentage point higher than last year), a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan (1.6 trillion yuan more than last year), and a significant increase in various bond issuances [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 27, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 16.0% compared to the week of June 20, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].