Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-03 10:10Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The zinc price is running weakly. The downstream consumption is gradually weakening, and the inventory shipment speed has slowed down. The domestic social inventory is stable, but the overseas LME zinc premium has risen, and the inventory has continued to decline, driving up the domestic price. Technically, the position has decreased and returned to the previous operating range. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 22,325 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the 08 - 09 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 55 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,753 dollars/ton, up 39.5 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 264,239 lots, up 410 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 18,304 lots, up 4,592 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 6,599 tons, down 25 tons; the SHFE inventory is 43,633 tons, up 769 tons; the LME inventory is 113,425 tons, down 1,475 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network is 22,430 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market is 22,520 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is 105 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 22.04 dollars/ton, down 3.29 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, a decrease of 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, an increase of 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0075 million tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 583,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, an increase of 124,900 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, a decrease of 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, an increase of 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 61,600 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, a decrease of 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 231.8361 million square meters, an increase of 53.4777 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 183.8514 million square meters, an increase of 27.3729 million square meters; the monthly automobile output is 2.642 million vehicles, an increase of 38,000 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner output is 19.6788 million units, an increase of 3.4764 million units [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options on zinc is 15.19%, a decrease of 0.34%; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 7.27%, a decrease of 0.11%; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 16.74%, a decrease of 0.05% [3] Industry News - In June, the US ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, the first negative growth since March 2023, with an expected increase of 98,000. The service - sector employment decreased by 66,000 in June, the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest - rate futures fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. The National Development and Reform Commission allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two - major" construction projects in 2025. The preliminary estimate of the Passenger Car Association shows that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in June were 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [3]