Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2510 contract continued to rebound. The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully released. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 48.47%; the factory inventory decreased while the social inventory increased, with a total inventory decrease of 37,900 tons and an apparent demand of 2.2487 million tons, an increase of 49,600 tons. Overall, rebar performed better than expected, with increased output, decreased inventory, and improved apparent demand. Meanwhile, the "anti-involution" policy continued to boost steel prices. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running above the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bullish on fluctuations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,076 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the position volume was 2,237,249 lots, up 10,870 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was 53,683 lots, up 21,682 lots; the spread between the RB10 - 1 contract was -14 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,073 tons, up 1,803 tons; the spread between the HC2510 - RB2510 contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price (actual weight) was 3,282 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,160 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the RB main contract was 124 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the spot spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 60 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 706 yuan/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,265 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,930 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2]. - The domestic iron ore port inventory was 139.3023 million tons, up 360,700 tons; the coke inventory of sample coking plants was 738,100 tons, down 73,100 tons [2]. - The coke inventory of sample steel mills was 6.2751 million tons, down 65,000 tons; the billet inventory in Tangshan was 873,400 tons, up 100,800 tons [2]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.84%, unchanged; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.85%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of rebar from sample steel mills was 2.2108 million tons, up 32,400 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar from sample steel mills was 48.47%, up 0.72 percentage points [2]. - The factory inventory of rebar from sample steel mills was 1.8047 million tons, down 51,300 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 3.6474 million tons, up 13,400 tons [2]. - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the domestic crude steel output was 86.55 million tons, up 530,000 tons [2]. - China's monthly rebar output was 17.3 million tons, up 420,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 10.1 million tons, up 160,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The National Real Estate Climate Index was 93.72, down 0.13; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment completion was 3.70%, down 0.30 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.70%, down 0.40 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 5.60%, down 0.20 percentage points [2]. - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.2502 billion square meters, down 4.704 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 231.84 million square meters, down 53.48 million square meters [2]. - The unsold area of commercial housing was 412.64 million square meters, up 4.39 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam. Vietnamese exports to the US will be subject to a 20% tariff, and any transshipment goods will be subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam has agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [2]. - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 billion yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully released [2].
瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20250703