瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Macroeconomically, the US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000 instead of increasing, with the first monthly decline in over three years. Trump claimed that the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement. Fundamentally, there is great uncertainty about the resumption progress of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, and Thailand has banned the transit of tin mines from Myanmar, restricting the import supply of tin ore. The Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, and currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. On the smelting side, the Yunnan production area faces a combination of raw material shortages and cost pressures. The waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level. On the demand side, after the end of the rush to install photovoltaic equipment, the operating rate of some producers has declined. The electronics industry has entered the off - season, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Recently, the tin price has corrected, the spot premium has been lowered to 400 yuan/ton, and the trading is sluggish. Most downstream enterprises are waiting and seeing the current price, and the domestic inventory has increased slightly. However, overseas inventory continues to decline, the LME cancelled warrants have increased, the premium has risen, and the strength of LME tin has driven up the domestic price. Technically, the positions are stable, and both long and short sides are cautious. Attention should be paid to the adjustment at the 270,000 yuan mark. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being, with a reference range of 266,000 - 272,000 yuan [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 268,420 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month tin is 33,585 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars. The closing price difference between the August - September contracts of Shanghai tin is - 80 yuan, an increase of 50 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 30,442 lots, a decrease of 923 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 631 lots, an increase of 27 lots. The total inventory of LME tin is 2,215 tons, a decrease of 5 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,955 tons, a decrease of 10 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME tin are 710 tons, a decrease of 25 tons. The warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,882 tons, a decrease of 6 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 268,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 269,070 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan. The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 3,320 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 38 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.99 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, a decrease of 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 257,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,700 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 261,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,700 yuan. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, an increase of 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 174,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, an increase of 144,500 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, a decrease of 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - The US ADP employment in June decreased by 33,000 unexpectedly, the first negative growth since March 2023. The US interest rate futures have fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The National Development and Reform Commission has arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers in China in June is 1.26 million, a year - on - year increase of 29% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. From January to June this year, the cumulative wholesale sales are 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38%. Trump claimed that the US and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, with the US imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese goods and a 40% tariff on trans - shipped goods, and Vietnam "fully opening its market" to the US [3]