BYD(SZ:002594) Guotou Securities·2025-07-03 10:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy-A" with a target price of 454.25 CNY over the next six months [4]. Core Insights - BYD's domestic sales in June 2025 showed a slight increase of 11% year-on-year, with total sales of 378,000 vehicles, including 207,000 pure electric vehicles (up 43% year-on-year) and 171,000 plug-in hybrids (down 12% year-on-year) [1]. - The company is experiencing strong growth in its high-end brands, with sales of the Tengshi brand increasing by 29% year-on-year and the Fangchengbao brand skyrocketing by 605% year-on-year [2]. - BYD's overseas sales reached 90,000 units in June, marking a 234% increase year-on-year, driven by new model launches and expanded shipping capacity [3]. - The company is expected to continue its upward trajectory in 2025, with projected net profits of 55.21 billion CNY, 64.39 billion CNY, and 81.24 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - In June 2025, BYD sold 378,000 vehicles, with pure electric sales at 207,000 units (up 43% year-on-year) and plug-in hybrid sales at 171,000 units (down 12% year-on-year) [1]. - The decline in domestic sales is attributed to inventory reduction efforts, with an estimated retail of 336,000 units in June [1]. High-End Brand Growth - Tengshi brand sales reached 16,000 units (up 29% year-on-year), while Fangchengbao brand sales surged to 19,000 units (up 605% year-on-year) [2]. - New models like Fangchengbao Tai 7 are expected to further enhance sales and profitability [2]. International Expansion - BYD's overseas sales reached 90,000 units in June, a 234% increase year-on-year, with significant market penetration in regions like the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa [3]. - The company has launched several models in new markets, contributing to its international growth [3]. Future Outlook - BYD is expected to leverage its scale and cost advantages, with a focus on smart driving technology and high-end model launches to enhance competitiveness [4]. - The company anticipates continued high growth in exports, driven by a rich matrix of overseas models and better profitability compared to domestic sales [4].