能源化工期权策略早报-20250703

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others[9]. - For each sector, some varieties are selected to give option strategies and suggestions[9]. - Option strategy reports are prepared for each option variety based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions[9]. - Strategies involve constructing option combination strategies mainly as sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns[3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc.[4]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are presented, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively[5]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and the corresponding offsets of various energy - chemical options are given, which are determined by the strike prices of the maximum open interest of call and put options[6]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various energy - chemical options are provided. The weighted implied volatility uses volume - weighted average[7]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Different Options 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - Crude Oil: - Underlying Market Analysis: As of the week ending June 20, 2025, US crude oil inventories decreased, with strategic inventories increasing slightly and commercial inventories decreasing significantly. The crude oil market has shown a short - term weak trend since June[8]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of crude oil options remains at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating increasing short - selling power, and the pressure level is 660 and the support level is 450[8]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: For volatility strategies, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy. For spot long - hedging strategies, construct a long collar strategy[8]. - LPG: - Underlying Market Analysis: In May 2025, China's LPG production decreased year - on - year. The LPG market has shown a short - term bearish trend[10]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of LPG options remains at a relatively high level compared to the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating increasing short - selling power, and the pressure level is 5100 and the support level is 4000[10]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: Similar to crude oil, construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging[10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - Methanol: - Underlying Market Analysis: Port and factory inventories have changed. The methanol market has shown a short - term narrow - range oscillation trend[10]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of methanol options is at a relatively high level compared to the historical average, the open interest PCR is around 0.90, indicating an oscillating market, and the pressure level is 2950 and the support level is 2200[10]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging[10]. - Ethylene Glycol: - Underlying Market Analysis: Port and downstream factory inventories have changed. The ethylene glycol market has shown a bearish downward trend with upper pressure[11]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options remains around the historical average, the open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak trend, and the pressure level is 4350 and the support level is 4300[11]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: Construct a short - volatility strategy for volatility and a long + put + short - call strategy for spot long - hedging[11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - Polypropylene: - Underlying Market Analysis: The downstream operating rate of PP has decreased, and inventories have changed. The polypropylene market has shown a weak trend with upper pressure[11]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of polypropylene options remains around the historical average, the open interest PCR has decreased below 0.80, indicating a weakening trend, and the pressure level is 7500 and the support level is 6800[11]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: For spot long - hedging, hold a long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option[11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - Rubber: - Underlying Market Analysis: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak, resulting in limited upward space for rubber prices. The rubber market has shown a low - level consolidation trend[12]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of rubber options remains around the average level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, and the pressure level is 21000 and the support level is 13000[12]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility[12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - PTA: - Underlying Market Analysis: PTA inventory is at a low level, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking phase in July. The PTA market has shown a highly volatile trend recently[13]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of PTA options remains at a relatively high level, the open interest PCR is above 1.00, indicating a relatively strong trend, and the pressure level is 5800 and the support level is 4500[13]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility[13]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - Caustic Soda: - Underlying Market Analysis: The capacity utilization rate of caustic soda has changed slightly, and inventory has decreased. The caustic soda market has shown a bearish trend recently and has stabilized this week[14]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of caustic soda options has been decreasing and is currently around the average level, the open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating a weak trend, and the pressure level is 2400 and the support level is 2200[14]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: Construct a bear - spread strategy for direction and a long + short - call strategy for spot covered hedging[14]. - Soda Ash: - Underlying Market Analysis: The domestic soda ash market is weak, and inventory has increased slightly. The soda ash market has shown a weak bearish and low - level consolidation trend[14]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of soda ash options is around the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.50, indicating a weak and oscillating trend, and the pressure level is 1220 and the support level is 1120[14]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: Construct a bear - spread strategy for direction, a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot long - hedging[14]. 3.5.7 Other Options - Urea: - Underlying Market Analysis: Domestic urea port inventories have increased, and enterprise inventories have decreased slowly. The urea market has shown a bearish oscillating trend[15]. - Option Factor Research: The implied volatility of urea options is slightly below the historical average, the open interest PCR is below 0.80, and the pressure level is 1900 and the support level is 1700[15]. - Option Strategy Suggestions: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy for volatility and a long + put + short - call strategy for spot hedging[15].