南华期货沥青风险管理日报-20250703

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand of asphalt remains resilient. This week, the production was 547,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.5%, and the demand was 581,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%. The sample inventory decreased by 34,000 tons. The factory inventory decreased significantly, while the social inventory changed little. [3] - The asphalt basis strengthened and the cracking strengthened due to the decline in crude oil risk premium, still remaining in a high - level range. [3] - In the future, the supply side is in seasonal resumption of production, but limited by poor refined oil profits and limited profitability of local refineries, there is little room for significant improvement. The demand side will enter the peak construction season in August, and the progress of local government debt resolution in 2025 has accelerated, with some relief in funds. The peak season is still expected. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 25.66%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 51.03%. [2] 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short the bu2509 asphalt futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton. [2] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and hoping to purchase according to orders, they can buy the bu2509 asphalt futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 50%, and the recommended entry range is 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Supply: Overall in seasonal resumption of production, but limited by poor refined oil profits and limited profitability of local refineries, difficult to have a large increase. [3] - Demand: Construction conditions in the north and south will be good from August, entering the peak construction season. The progress of local government debt resolution in 2025 has accelerated, and funds have been alleviated. [3] 3.4利多 and利空 Factors - Lido Factors: Small pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices; seasonal peak demand; low - level start - up and expected catch - up construction in the south. [8] - Likong Factors: Short - term drag on demand due to the plum - rain season in the south; easing of the Middle East situation and the return of the crude oil war premium; after the end of maintenance, the production of some refineries has recovered. [5][8] 3.5 Price and Basis Data - Spot Prices: On July 3, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3820 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/day, up 15 yuan/week), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3780 yuan/ton (unchanged), the North China spot price was 3760 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/day, unchanged/week), and the South China spot price was 3630 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan/day, down 20 yuan/week). [6] - Basis: The basis of Shandong spot 09 was 232 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan/day, down 10 yuan/week), the basis of the Yangtze River Delta spot 09 was 192 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan/day, down 25 yuan/week), etc. [6] - Cracking: The cracking of Shandong spot to Brent was 166.6122 yuan/barrel (up 0.8664 yuan/day, down 14.7646 yuan/week), and the cracking of the futures main contract to Brent was 126.4093 yuan/barrel (up 2.9459 yuan/day, down 13.0317 yuan/week). [6]