镍、不锈钢：短期维持宽幅震荡走势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of nickel and stainless steel will maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [1] - There are no new contradictions in the news and fundamentals of nickel, and it is digesting recent sentiment. The nickel ore benchmark price in July was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support. The transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, affected by weak downstream demand. For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts. The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Nickel Price Forecast and Management Strategies - The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - For inventory management, when there is a risk of product sales price decline and inventory depreciation, it is recommended to short Shanghai nickel futures according to inventory levels and sell call options to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60% for futures and 50% for options [2] - For procurement management, when worried about rising raw material prices, it is recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan and sell put options, and also buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio determined by the procurement plan [2] 2. Core Contradictions - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel is oscillating strongly. There are no new contradictions in news and fundamentals, mainly digesting recent sentiment [3] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered, but the Philippine ore end remains firm with bottom support [3] - The intraday transaction price of ferronickel has been declining, mainly affected by weak downstream demand [3] - For stainless steel, low - price resources on the spot side have significantly decreased, and attention should be paid to anti - dumping duties and large - scale production cuts [3] - The new energy chain has a certain price - holding sentiment but still maintains a production - to - order situation, and attention should be paid to the overall trend of the new energy market and nickel ore quotas [3] 3.利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The ban on cobalt mines in Congo continues [4] - Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons [4] - Policies have a positive impact on the overall new energy chain [4] - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year [4] 4.利空解读 (Negative Factors) - Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow [5] - The contradictions in the ferronickel industry chain have deepened, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [5] - The inventory of pure nickel is high [6] - The July nickel ore benchmark price was slightly lowered [6] 5. Nickel and Stainless Steel Disk Data - For nickel, the latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 570 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume increased by 14.14%, and the open interest decreased by 4.73% [6] - For stainless steel, the latest price of the main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a 0% change; the trading volume decreased by 20.00%, and the open interest decreased by 0.10% [7] 6. Nickel Industry Inventory - The domestic social inventory of nickel is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons compared to the previous period [8] - The LME nickel inventory is 203,628 tons, a decrease of 474 tons [8] - The social inventory of stainless steel is 992.1 tons, a decrease of 8.5 tons [8] - The inventory of nickel pig iron is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [8]