宝城期货有色日报-20250703

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Copper: Last night, copper prices soared, with the main contract approaching the 81,000 yuan mark. Today, prices oscillated downward. Macroscopically, the Middle - East situation eased, overseas risk appetite increased, and after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, domestic macro - expectations rose. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, and the black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Industrially, as copper prices rose, downstream buyers became more hesitant, and Mysteel's social inventory increased slightly on Thursday. With macro factors driving prices up and the contract breaking through 80,000 yuan on increased positions, it is expected to maintain a strong trend. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [4]. - Aluminum: Today, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum oscillated below 20,700 yuan, and its open interest increased slightly. Macroscopically, both domestic and overseas atmospheres improved. After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, the market expected the elimination of backward production capacity, and the Caixin Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations. The black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Industrially, as the downstream entered the off - season and had price - aversion sentiment, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the June high [5]. - Nickel: Today, Shanghai nickel showed a strong oscillation, approaching the 122,000 yuan mark in the afternoon. Globally, the macro - environment improved, and nickel prices rebounded from the bottom. Domestically, the macro - situation also improved after the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission. The black sector's rebound supported the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, short - term strength in the ore end supported nickel prices, while long - term nickel element surplus limited its upside. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the 122,000 yuan level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On July 3rd, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 129,400 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the 26th and an increase of 5,900 tons from the 30th. On the same day, Cailian Press reported that Goldman Sachs expected an upward risk for LME copper prices in August, with a predicted price of $10,050 per ton [8]. - Aluminum: On July 3rd, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 466,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from the 30th and 6,000 tons from the 26th [9]. - Nickel: On July 3rd, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,300 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,880 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,080 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was +2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,330 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,680 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts - Copper: Charts include copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, Shanghai copper monthly spread, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - Aluminum: Charts include aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, alumina inventory, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum monthly spread [22][24][26]. - Nickel: Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [33][37][39].