煤焦日报：内卷整治提振，煤焦低位反弹-20250703

Report Overview - Report Date: July 3, 2025 - Report Type: Coal and Coke Daily Report - Industry: Black Metal Core Views - Coke: On July 3, the coke main contract closed at 1,445.5 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 2.05%. The spot prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port showed different trends. The central financial and economic commission's meeting led to an expectation of supply - side adjustment, boosting the coke futures to rebound from a low level. In the short - term, the fundamentals change little, and the futures may maintain a relatively strong trend [5][31]. - Coking Coal: On July 3, the coking coal main contract closed at 856 points, with an intraday increase of 3.76%. The spot price at Ganqimaodu Port increased. The central financial and economic commission's meeting on anti - involution competition raised supply - side adjustment expectations. Although there is an expectation of increased supply in July, concerns about medium - to - long - term supply contraction drove the main contract to rebound [6][32]. Industry News - Passenger Car Market: From June 1 - 30, the retail sales of the national passenger car market reached 2.032 million vehicles, a 15% year - on - year increase and a 5% increase from the previous month. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.849 million vehicles, a 10% year - on - year increase. The wholesale volume was 2.473 million vehicles, a 14% year - on - year increase and a 7% increase from the previous month, with a cumulative wholesale of 13.263 million vehicles this year, a 12% year - on - year increase [8]. - Coking Coal Auction: On July 3, Mongolia's small TT company held an online auction for coking coal. The 102,400 - ton Mongolian No. 4 raw coal was sold at the starting price of $78/ton, with the price unchanged from the previous day [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, flat - closing) | 1,220 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,170 yuan/ton | 2.63% | 0.86% | - 27.78% | - 43.20% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 930 yuan/ton | 7.51% | 7.51% | - 21.19% | - 41.88% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,210 yuan/ton | 1.68% | 0.00% | - 18.79% | - 42.11% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 18.30% | - 39.61% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,445.5 | 2.05% | 1,450.0 | 1,426.0 | 22,987 | - 7,179 | 49,437 | - 291 | | Coking Coal | | 856.0 | 3.76% | 863.0 | 836.0 | 1,094,031 | - 95,952 | 539,289 | 10,062 | [13] Related Charts - Coke Inventory: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port coke, and total coke inventory from 2019 - 2025 [14][15][18] - Coking Coal Inventory: Charts display the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, port coking coal, 247 sample steel - mill coking coal, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal from 2019 - 2025 [19][22][24] - Other Charts: Include Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation charts [25][28][29] Market Outlook - Coke: The short - term fundamentals change little. The anti - involution governance expectation boosts market sentiment, and the coke futures may maintain a relatively strong trend [5][31] - Coking Coal: Although there is an expectation of increased supply in July, the anti - involution campaign raises concerns about medium - to - long - term supply contraction, driving the main contract to rebound [6][32]