Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a strong and volatile trend, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rose in a volatile manner, with a daily increase of 1.45%, and the volume decreased while the open interest remained stable. At present, the supply and demand sides of hot - rolled coil are mainly operating stably, and the fundamentals have not improved. The inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore showed a strong operation, with a daily increase of 2.45%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore shows good resilience. Coupled with the positive market sentiment, the short - term price of iron ore will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand for iron ore, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - Guangzhou will implement the "commercial - to - public loan" policy to boost the real estate market. When the personal housing loan ratio of housing provident fund is lower than 75%, the commercial - to - public loan will be launched; when the loan ratio reaches 85% or above, preventive measures can be taken; when the loan ratio reaches 90% or above, it will be suspended [6]. - The Passenger Car Association estimated that the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers in June increased by 29% year - on - year and 3% month - on - month, and the cumulative wholesale sales from January to June were 6.47 million, a year - on - year increase of 38% [7]. - Australian mining company Fenix Resources officially launched the mining of the Beebyn - W11 iron ore project. The project has a designed annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons and is expected to achieve the first shipment of iron ore in the third quarter of 2025, which will increase the company's total iron ore production capacity to 4 million tons per year [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,120, 3,160, and 3,244 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,250, 3,140, and 3,252 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100. The volume - spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 130, and the volume - spread between rebar and scrap was 1,020 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 724, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 690, the sea freight from Australia was 7.04 and from Brazil was 18.93, the SGX swap (current month) was 95.25, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 95.10 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,076, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,086, the lowest price was 3,050, the trading volume was 1,776,150, the volume difference was - 595,134, the open interest was 2,237,249, and the open - interest difference was 10,870 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,208, with a daily increase of 1.45%, the highest price was 3,217, the lowest price was 3,175, the trading volume was 694,556, the volume difference was - 225,872, the open interest was 1,595,284, and the open - interest difference was - 474 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 733.0, with a daily increase of 2.45%, the highest price was 736.5, the lowest price was 721.5, the trading volume was 452,146, the volume difference was 2,895, the open interest was 639,417, and the open - interest difference was - 8,458 [11]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel mill iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel mill production conditions (including 247 - sample steel mill blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 - independent electric furnace operating rate, 247 - steel mill profitable steel mill ratio, and 75 - building material independent electric arc furnace steel mill profit and loss situation) [13][18][28] Market Outlook - For rebar, both the supply and demand sides have increased. The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and steel prices are prone to pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factors are the low inventory level, limited real - world contradictions, and the recent fermentation of policy benefits. The positive market sentiment supports the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [37]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply and demand sides are operating stably. The fundamentals have not improved, and the inventory has been continuously accumulating. However, the expectation of policy benefits has fermented again. Under the support of optimistic sentiment, the price of hot - rolled coil will maintain a strong operation trend in the short term. Be cautious about the switch of the trading logic to the industrial side [38]. - For iron ore, the demand shows good resilience, and the short - term price will operate strongly. However, there are concerns about the demand, and the supply is showing a stable trend. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern is limited. Be cautiously optimistic about the upward height, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [38].
市场情绪回暖，钢矿偏强震荡
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-07-03 11:31