Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although there are expectations of supply tightening, subsequent production will recover, and demand remains weak. Caution is advised when chasing up [3]. - The price of copper is expected to continue its upward trend, but the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations on the US dollar index will increase price volatility [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise in the September peak - demand season, with short - term upward movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level around 62,000 [10]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but geopolitical risks and the OPEC+ meeting need to be monitored. It is recommended to lightly buy put options [11][12]. - For asphalt, as it enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - PP and plastic are expected to fluctuate at low levels due to factors such as weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [15][16]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at low levels in the near term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. - Soybean meal futures are expected to show a volatile adjustment trend, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and tax bills [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather during the growing season [21]. - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. - The price increase of urea is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - Price: Opened high and closed up more than 3% [3]. - Supply: There are expectations of production cuts during the safety month, and the Mongolian coal import port is closed for 5 days. Domestic production and imports have decreased, and mine coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [3]. - Demand: Relatively weak and stable. Coke enterprises' profit has decreased, and the iron - water production increase is small. Terminal demand is affected by high temperatures and real - estate policies [3]. Copper - Price: Opened low and closed down [5]. - Supply: The supply of copper smelting is expected to be tight, but the actual supply is increasing. Global copper inventory is decreasing, with different trends in different regions [5]. - Demand: Affected by the copper tariff event, export demand has increased, but terminal demand is weak, and it is mainly supported by low - price purchases [5]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has increased [10]. - Supply: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to supply - side reform, current weekly production is increasing [10]. - Demand: The market expects September to be the peak - demand season. The prices of downstream materials have increased, but battery factory demand is relatively stable [10]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical Situation: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but geopolitical risks still need to be monitored. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 [11]. - Supply - Demand: Entering the seasonal peak - demand season, US crude oil inventory has decreased, and OPEC+ production increase is less than expected [11]. Asphalt - Supply: The weekly production is increasing, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased [13]. - Demand: As it gradually enters the peak season, the demand in the north is relatively good [13]. - Recommendation: It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - Supply: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the restart of some maintenance devices has increased production. The downstream start - up rate has decreased [14][15]. - Demand: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [15]. - Recommendation: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Plastic - Supply: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has decreased. The downstream start - up rate is at a low level [16]. - Demand: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [16]. - Recommendation: Expected to fluctuate at a low level in the near term [16]. PVC - Supply: The start - up rate has decreased, and social inventory is high [17][18]. - Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies [17][18]. - Recommendation: Expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: Domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and inventory is increasing [19]. - Demand: Terminal demand is stable, and oil mills have little motivation to support prices [19]. - Recommendation: Expected to show a volatile adjustment trend [19]. Soybean Oil - Supply: Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and the oil - mill start - up rate is high, resulting in inventory accumulation [21]. - Demand: Market reaction to USDA reports is flat, and the peak - production expectation is strong, but weather changes need to be watched out for [21]. - Recommendation: Expected to maintain a volatile trend [21]. Rebar - Supply: Production is increasing, and supply pressure is rising [22]. - Demand: Demand is weak, showing seasonal characteristics [22]. - Inventory: Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased [22]. - Cost: The cost center has moved up, providing support [22]. - Recommendation: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. Hot - rolled Coil - Supply: Production is expected to increase as maintenance impacts decrease [25]. - Demand: Terminal demand has seasonal decline, but is relatively resilient [25]. - Cost: Furnace material support is strong [25]. - Recommendation: Expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. Urea - Supply: Production is affected by maintenance, and there are concerns about supply - side reform, but the impact is relatively small [26]. - Demand: Overall demand is weak and stable, mainly relying on exports for inventory reduction [26]. - Recommendation: The price increase is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26].
冠通每日交易策略-20250703
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-07-03 11:47