Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-03 11:49Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - For corn, the international corn price still has an advantage. In the domestic market, the import corn targeted auction started on July 1st with significant premiums, and more imports will be released on July 4th, which may drag down market sentiment. Wheat has an obvious advantage as a feed substitute, reducing the feed demand for corn. Corn futures prices have recently fallen from high levels, and short - term trading is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, affected by continuous production losses, the industry's operating rate remains at a low level in recent years. Supported by reduced supply pressure and firm corn prices, the spot price of corn starch performs relatively well. However, downstream demand is entering the traditional off - season, and the supply - demand situation remains loose. Corn starch futures have also been oscillating recently, and short - term trading is recommended [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2363 yuan/ton (no change), and the corn starch month - to - month spread (9 - 11) is 60 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of corn starch is - 12665 hands (up 1277 hands), and the registered warehouse receipt volume of corn starch is 22722 hands (down 600 hands) [2]. - The closing price of CBOT corn futures (active contract) is 418.25 cents/bushel, and the non - commercial net long position of CBOT corn is - 130570 contracts (down 23326 contracts) [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2436.86 yuan/ton, and the factory price of corn starch in Changchun is 2720 yuan/ton (no change). The difference between Shandong starch and corn is 420 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton) [2]. Upstream Situation - The predicted sown area of corn in the US is 401.85 million hectares, and the predicted output is 35.37 million tons (up 1.82 million tons). The predicted sown area in Brazil is 131 million hectares (up 5 million hectares), and the predicted output is 22.6 million tons (up 0.3 million tons) [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventories at southern ports are 113.3 million tons (down 0.2 million tons), and starch enterprise inventories are 131.3 million tons (up 0.4 million tons). The monthly import volume of corn is 19 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 27780 tons (up 4060 tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2762.1 million tons, and the processing profit of corn starch in Shandong is - 100 yuan/ton (no change). The alcohol enterprise operating rate is 46.18% (up 2.38%), and the starch enterprise operating rate is 51.2% (up 0.05%) [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 7.19% (down 0.06%), and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 9.73% (down 0.5%) [2]. Industry News - The probability of the La Nina weather system forming this year is decreasing. The predicted corn export volume of Brazil in June 2025 is 566,435 tons, lower than the previous estimate. The US corn planting area in 2025 is 95.2 million acres, slightly lower than the March estimate [2].