2025H1可转债复盘：一波三折，强势表现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In H1 2025, convertible bonds showed an "N"-shaped upward fluctuation driven by multiple factors. The convertible bond index outperformed major stock indices, and the valuation increased by 3.58pct compared to the end of 2024. The convertible bond market experienced two rises and two falls, which can be divided into three stages: the valuation increase supported by the capital of convertible bonds from the end of 2024 to before the Spring Festival, the technology sector theme fever from after the Spring Festival to the end of March, and the callback and rebound of convertible bonds following the equity market under the tariff disturbances from early April to June [2][9]. - The convertible bond market presented strong performance. From the beginning of 2025 to June 30, the CSI Convertible Bond Index outperformed major equity market indices. The net value of convertible bond funds rose by 7.48% in H1 2025, better than that of first - and second - tier bond funds and partial - debt funds. The maximum drawdown of convertible bond funds was - 8.38%, which was better than that of stock - type and partial - stock - type funds [12]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025H1 Convertible Bond Market: Fluctuating with the Underlying Stocks under the Macroeconomic Narrative, with Better Stability - Convertible Bond Terms: In 2025, the number of forced redemptions remained high. A total of 96 convertible bonds triggered the forced redemption clause, and 36 were announced for redemption, with a forced redemption probability of 37.5%, slightly lower than 42.4% in 2024. The number of times the downward revision clause was triggered decreased, and the probability of downward revision also declined. The number and balance of convertible bonds entering the put - back period were still large, but put - back events only occurred sporadically [3][21][22]. - Supply - Demand Structure: The supply improved significantly year - on - year but was uneven. A total of 19 convertible bonds were issued in H1 2025, with a scale of 21.775 billion yuan, up 58.33% and 68.66% respectively compared to H1 2024. High - rating and large - cap convertible bonds had relatively weak issuance. On the demand side, most major holders reduced their positions, but securities firms and private funds increased their holdings [4][30][42]. 3.2 Stage Review: Convertible Bonds' Resistance to Decline - Theme Fever - External Disturbances - January 2 - January 27: Equity market had a small "V" - shaped reversal, and convertible bonds maintained a high - level valuation. At the beginning of the year, the equity market's callback and the spill - over effect from pure bonds catalyzed a rapid increase in the valuation of convertible bonds. Insurance funds and ETFs' increased holdings supported the valuation. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 3.43pct to 24.10% [5][58][63]. - February 5 - March 31: The technology theme fever catalyzed the convertible bond market. After the Spring Festival, the technology theme drove the equity market, and the convertible bond market was affected by the redemption pressure of bond funds, with its elasticity being less than that of the equity market, and the valuation decreased by 1.82pct to 22.28% [5][58][66]. - April 1 - June 30: External uncertainties were controllable, and the hot spots shifted to the pharmaceutical and consumer sectors. The tariff disturbances led to a callback in the equity market in April, but the impact was controllable. The convertible bond style turned to be more stable, and the valuation was relatively firm. The 100 - yuan premium rate increased by 2.44pct to 24.72% [5][58][71].