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当前经济与政策思考:国内外治理产业“内卷式”竞争的做法
ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-07-03 12:55

Supply Side - The approach to eliminate outdated production capacity includes market-driven mergers and government guidance, as seen in Japan's steel industry where the number of major companies reduced from six to three, achieving a combined crude steel production share of 71.6% by 2011[8] - Japan's government encouraged mergers through tax incentives, leading to the formation of Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation, the world's second-largest steel company, with a crude steel production share of 80.7% by 2014[8] - China has also implemented market-oriented reforms to promote mergers and capacity elimination, resulting in the establishment of China Baowu Steel Group, the largest steel conglomerate globally[8] Demand Side - Japan's "National Income Doubling Plan" in the 1960s aimed to boost domestic demand, resulting in an annual income growth exceeding 10% and private consumption reaching over 60% of GDP[20] - From 1983 to 1989, Japan's construction investment surged from 27.5 trillion yen to 46.4 trillion yen, driving steel consumption by approximately 10.3 trillion yen[20] - The U.S. "Marshall Plan" from 1948 to 1952 provided $15 billion in aid to Europe, facilitating the export of surplus production and stimulating the U.S. economy[22] Policy Measures - The U.S. has established a comprehensive bankruptcy procedure allowing companies to reorganize during bankruptcy, maximizing value for stakeholders[24] - Japan's legislation in 1978 provided employment assistance for laid-off workers during capacity reduction, including job training and extended unemployment benefits[25] - Risk factors include unexpected fluctuations in overseas economies and potential delays in the update of public data used in the report[26]