Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-03 13:12Group 1: IPO Market Overview - In 25H1, A-shares issued 48 new stocks, raising a total of 38 billion yuan, with a month-on-month decrease of 5 stocks but a year-on-year increase of 5 stocks[3] - The number of newly accepted IPO projects reached 150, with 123 accepted in June alone, indicating a recovery in the IPO market[3] - As of June 30, 2025, there are 298 IPO projects pending approval, with a total proposed fundraising of 281.4 billion yuan[3] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The average first-day increase for new stocks in 25H1 was 215.7%, although this represents a decrease of 143 percentage points from the previous period[3] - The average price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for new stocks in 25H1 was 20 times, with a discount of 41% compared to comparable companies, marking a historical high for the discount rate[3] - The proportion of new stocks that exceeded their fundraising targets increased, with over 40% of new stocks experiencing oversubscription in June[3] Group 3: Participation and Allocation - The number of participants in offline inquiries increased significantly, with the average number of participants in the main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board rising by 8%, 14%, and 11% respectively[3] - The allocation ratio for preferred participants decreased significantly, with main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board allocation ratios at 0.0133%, 0.0272%, and 0.0401% respectively, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 18%, 19%, and 17%[3] - The expected return for 2 billion yuan scale preferred/non-preferred participants in 25H2 is projected to be 2.77% and 2.03% respectively[3] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential changes in the IPO review pace, adjustments in issuance regulations, fluctuations in investor participation, and the quality/quantity of application projects[3] - The expectation for 25H2 is a stable increase in the volume of new stocks, with a projected first-day increase of 140%-180%, which is lower than the average level in the first half of the year[3]