国投期货能源日报-20250703

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Asphalt: ★★★, meaning a clearer long - term trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price increase/decrease, but poor operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - The geopolitical risk around the Iranian nuclear issue has heated up again, and the risk of trade war has weakened. The theme of loose supply - demand for crude oil continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [2] - Oil prices led the rise of oil product futures, and fuel - related futures closed slightly higher. High - sulfur fuel oil has weak demand and a weakening crack spread, while low - sulfur fuel oil has limited supply pressure but lacks demand drivers and shows a volatile trend [3] - From January to July, the cumulative output of domestic refinery asphalt is expected to increase by 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative shipment volume has increased by 8%. The demand in South China is expected to increase further after "ending the plum rain season", and the third quarter is a key window for demand recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate [4] - The July CP has been significantly reduced, the international market supply is abundant, and the domestic supply is loose. The futures price shows a weakening and volatile trend [5] Summaries by Categories Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rose, with the SC08 contract up 1.56%. The geopolitical risk around the Iranian nuclear issue has heated up again, and the risk of trade war has weakened [2] - The supply - demand theme of crude oil remains loose. Last week, the US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3.845 million barrels more than expected, and the gasoline apparent demand was lower than expected. The global oil inventory accumulation trend cannot be reversed by the peak - season factor under the expected rapid production increase of OPEC+ [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Oil prices led the rise of oil product futures, and fuel - related futures closed slightly higher [3] - High - sulfur fuel oil has low demand for ship bunkering and deep - processing. The demand boost from power generation in the Middle East and North Africa in summer is discounted due to the high crack spread valuation. After the short - term boost of oil prices by good news, the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil has weakened [3] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has limited short - term supply pressure due to the solid - flow effect, but lacks demand drivers and shows a volatile trend [3] Asphalt - From January to July, the cumulative output of domestic refinery asphalt is expected to increase by 7% year - on - year, and the cumulative shipment volume of 54 sample refineries has increased by 8% year - on - year [4] - The demand in South China is expected to increase further after "ending the plum rain season" in early July. The third quarter is a key window for demand recovery [4] - The latest inventory data shows a slight inventory increase of 0.7 million tons, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The July CP has been significantly reduced, the international market supply is abundant, and the US propane inventory is rising rapidly, putting pressure on international prices [5] - Affected by refinery operations, the external sales volume of domestic gas continued to increase last week, strengthening the loose domestic supply situation [5] - After the rapid disappearance of the premium from political risk and the driving force of crude oil, attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of overseas exports, and the futures price shows a weakening and volatile trend [5]