Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-07-03 13:52Group 1: Global Propylene Supply Pattern - The global propylene production is concentrated in Northeast Asia, North America, and Western Europe. Northeast Asia is the largest production region, with a 48.1% share of the world's total capacity in 2024, and China accounts for 39.4%. North America and Northeast Asia together account for 65.6% of the global capacity. Western Europe has a 9% share, and has been a net importer since 2021. The Middle East and Southeast Asia also have propylene production, with shares of 7.4% and 6.5% respectively [1]. - The global propylene production capacity had a compound growth rate of 5.9% from 2020 - 2024. Over 14 million tons/year of new capacity is planned from 2025 - 2027, and the capacity is expected to reach 196 million tons by 2030, with major increments in Northeast Asia, North America, and Southeast Asia [1]. Group 2: Global Major Propylene Producers Head - enterprises - Sinopec has a propylene capacity of about 13 million tons/year, accounting for 7.6% of the global total, ranking first globally. It uses mainly naphtha cracking (60%) and is accelerating the layout of PDH. Over 2 million tons/year of new PDH capacity was added in 2024. More than 50% of its propylene is consumed domestically, and it exports through Southeast Asia [4]. - PetroChina has a total propylene capacity of about 6.76 million tons/year as of 2024, accounting for 4.0% of the global total, ranking second. About 85% of its capacity comes from naphtha cracking. Its future competitiveness depends on high - end product R & D, PDH technology penetration, and low - carbon transformation [4]. - LyondellBasell has a capacity of about 5 million tons/year, ranking third globally. It has production bases in North America, Rotterdam in Europe, and Singapore in Asia. It is the world's largest polypropylene producer, and its propylene is mainly used for high - end derivatives with 15% - 20% higher added value [5]. - Saudi Aramco has a capacity of about 4.8 million tons/year, ranking fourth. It has a core device in the Jubail Petrochemical Park. It exports products, accounting for 12% of the global propylene exports, and plans to expand the Zhejiang Petrochemical project with Rongsheng Petrochemical in 2026, adding 1 million tons/year of propylene capacity [5]. Regional leaders - INEOS has a capacity of about 3.8 million tons/year, being the largest propylene producer in Europe. It uses mainly steam cracking (70%) and supplies the European automotive and packaging industries, and also radiates the North American market [6]. - BASF has a capacity of about 3 million tons/year, ranking fifth globally. It投产 the first bio - based propylene plant in Europe in 2024, aiming for a 15% bio - based raw material share by 2030 [6]. - ExxonMobil has a capacity of about 2.8 million tons/year, ranking sixth globally, with production bases in the US, Singapore, and China [6]. Emerging Asian forces - Zhongjing Petrochemical has a capacity of 2.8 million tons/year, being the world's largest single - plant propylene producer. It uses all PDH processes and targets over 30% market share in the domestic PP powder market and exports to Vietnam and Indonesia [8]. - Wanhua Chemical has a capacity of about 1.8 million tons/year, ranking among the top ten globally. Its propylene is mainly used for high - end products such as POE and MDI [8]. Group 3: China's Propylene Capacity Development Structural over - supply and slowing growth - China's propylene capacity had a compound growth rate of 14.34% from 2020 - 2024, adding 29.12 million tons. From 2025 - 2030, the planned new capacity is 22.15 million tons/year, with a compound growth rate of 5.29%, showing a significant slowdown [9]. Increasing industry concentration - In 2024, there were 189 propylene producers in China, with 13 enterprises having an annual capacity of over 1 million tons, accounting for 6.88%. The CR10 enterprise capacity accounted for 22.77%. In the next 5 years, the industry will continue to develop in a diversified, integrated, and large - scale manner [11]. Process route competition and regional development - China has diverse propylene production processes, including naphtha cracking, propane dehydrogenation (PDH), methanol - to - olefins, and catalytic cracking. PDH has developed rapidly and impacted the market share of naphtha cracking. PDH capacity is mainly distributed in coastal areas [13]. - From 2020 - 2024, East China's propylene capacity increased by 8.56 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 14%. Shandong's capacity increased by 7.81 million tons, with an average annual compound growth rate of 21% [15]. Declining import dependence and commodification rate - China's propylene import dependence has declined from 14.1% in 2014 to 3.3% in 2024 and is expected to further decrease. The commodification rate is also expected to decline to 13.3% in 2025, with the commodity volume expected to drop to 7.9 million tons [17].