2025年中期宏观经济及资产配置展望：破浪前行

Economic Performance - In the first five months of 2025, the cumulative year-on-year export growth was 6.0%, with a cumulative trade surplus of $471.9 billion, the highest for the same period in history[43] - The contribution of net exports to GDP in Q1 was 2.13%, accounting for 39.5% of GDP growth[43] Industrial Production - Industrial production maintained stability with an average year-on-year growth of 6.4% from January to May, surpassing the previous year's average of 5.6%[54] - The equipment manufacturing sector showed significant growth, supported by both investment in equipment updates and exports[54] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.7% year-on-year in the first five months, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments remaining stable, while real estate investment continued to be a drag[21] - Equipment updates contributed over 60% to overall fixed asset investment growth, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% in equipment purchases from January to May[25] Consumer Behavior - The contribution rate of the "old-for-new" consumption policy to overall retail sales growth was 24.3% cumulatively from January to May, with May's contribution reaching 31.8%[13] - Consumer spending inclination was at 63.1% in Q1 2025, still below pre-pandemic levels, indicating ongoing challenges in boosting consumer confidence[18] Real Estate Market - Real estate investment is expected to maintain a decline of around -10% in the second half of 2025, with pressures on sales and investment continuing[42] - The land transaction area in 100 cities saw a year-on-year decrease of 9.7% in the first five months, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector[34] Policy Impact - The government has implemented a series of financial policies to stabilize the market, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and various structural tools aimed at boosting consumption and supporting small and medium enterprises[75] - The issuance of special bonds for land reserves and urban renewal projects has increased, with a focus on supporting real estate-related investments[81]