银行业研究框架暨2025中期投资策略：兼顾红利与周期属性，平衡“核心+卫星”组合

Investment Rating - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy focusing on both core and satellite positions within the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for stable profits and dividends [3][4]. Core Insights - The banking industry is experiencing intensified competition, particularly among regional banks, which are undergoing significant reforms and consolidation to enhance market competitiveness and financial stability [3][18]. - Recent operational pressures have emerged, with banks facing challenges in asset-liability management, net interest margins, and asset quality, influenced by macroeconomic conditions and regulatory frameworks [3][4]. - Profitability and dividend distributions are expected to remain stable, supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and promoting consumption [3][4]. - The report advocates for a "core + satellite" investment strategy, recommending high-dividend state-owned banks as core holdings, complemented by cyclical regional banks as satellite investments [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Competitive Landscape of Commercial Banks - National banks dominate the market due to their capital, network, and customer advantages, while regional banks are increasingly consolidating to improve competitiveness [3][10]. 2. Business Models of Commercial Banks - National banks focus on diversified business models, while regional banks primarily engage in asset-liability operations, heavily reliant on local economic conditions [3][26]. 3. Performance Attribution of Commercial Banks - The performance of banks is driven by three factors: scale (asset size), price (net interest margin), and quality (asset quality), all of which are currently under pressure [3][4]. 4. Outlook for Commercial Banking Operations - The report anticipates a stabilization in profits and dividends, with a positive outlook for the banking sector as macroeconomic policies continue to support recovery in consumption and investment [3][4]. 5. Investment Strategy - A balanced investment approach is recommended, focusing on high-dividend state-owned banks and cyclical regional banks to optimize returns in a low-interest-rate environment [3][4].