生猪养殖行业专题报告132：复盘2013-2018年环保去产能的发展脉络及其影响

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agricultural products sector is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The pig farming industry underwent significant transformation from 2013 to 2018 due to environmental policies, leading to rapid elimination of outdated production capacity, particularly affecting small and medium-sized farmers [2][6][18] - The profitability of the industry has notably increased during this cycle, with longer profit durations and higher profit levels compared to previous cycles [2][6][18] - The stock performance shifted from a broad market rally in 2015 to a focus on growth stocks, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods showing independent growth despite market fluctuations [2][6][18] Policy - A series of environmental policies targeting the pig farming industry were introduced starting in 2013, including the designation of restricted farming zones and the establishment of pollution discharge permits [7][19][20] - The policy evolution can be categorized into three phases: initial framework establishment in 2013, comprehensive implementation from 2016, and a shift towards stabilizing production and supply by the end of 2018 [7][19][20] Production Capacity - The tightening of environmental regulations led to a significant exit of small and medium-sized farmers, with the total pig stock declining from 469 million heads in November 2013 to 322 million heads in August 2018, a decrease of 31% [8][24] - The number of breeding sows also fell from 50.68 million in early 2013 to 31.45 million by August 2018, a drop of 38% [8][24] - The exit of small-scale farmers was more pronounced, with a 6.4% reduction in the share of farmers with annual output below 50 heads and an 8.2% reduction for those below 100 heads [28][29] Sector Performance - The environmental policies led to a revaluation of the market, transitioning from a broad rally in the pig farming sector to a focus on high-growth leaders [9][46] - In 2015, after significant capacity reduction, pig prices rebounded sharply, resulting in a maximum index increase of 103% from March to August [9][46] - By 2017, the stock performance began to diverge, with companies like Muyuan Foods achieving substantial growth while others faced downward pressure due to falling pig prices [9][46]