Guotou Securities·2025-07-03 15:38Group 1 - The report highlights that innovative drugs are leading the pharmaceutical sector's market trends, with valuations expected to continue recovering [3][7][10] - The trend of innovative drugs going overseas is accelerating, which is likely to sustain the main market momentum [3][28] - The report indicates that the overall performance of the pharmaceutical sector faced pressure in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 4.34% and a net profit drop of 8.87% [4][5] Group 2 - The report notes that the commercialization of domestic biotech innovative drug companies is entering a stable phase, with a significant revenue increase of 36% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 92.43 billion yuan [29][57] - It is projected that the domestic market for innovative drugs could reach 446 billion yuan by 2030, assuming a compound annual growth rate of 30% over the next six years [57][61] - The report emphasizes that the existing overseas licensing deals could yield a sales share of approximately 14.5 billion USD, based on conservative estimates of project success [61][62] Group 3 - The report suggests that there are opportunities for gradual recovery in various sub-sectors, including CXO, traditional Chinese medicine, and retail pharmacies, as operational improvements are expected [3][28] - The report identifies a significant increase in the holdings of innovative drug stocks by public funds, with a notable rise in the proportion of biotech innovative drug holdings [14][24] - The report outlines that the innovative drug sector is expected to benefit from breakthroughs in medical technology, including surgical robots and AI in healthcare [3][4][28]