美国6月份非农就业增长超预期

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment remains high, with the ChiNext Index strongly rebounding due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. The US labor market shows resilience, affecting the Fed's interest - rate decision and the performance of various financial and commodity markets [2][22]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, some metals like lead may see an upward shift in the price oscillation center, while some agricultural products like corn have a strong spot market due to decreasing visible inventory [6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US 6 - month employment report exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%. The market dispelled the expectation of a July interest - rate cut, and gold is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of decline [15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The US has revoked restrictions on China's EDA. The ChiNext Index rebounded strongly due to the US - Vietnam trade agreement. It is recommended to evenly allocate various stock indices to cope with sector rotation [17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The latest non - farm data in June exceeded expectations, with the unemployment rate decreasing and new employment exceeding expectations. The US dollar index rebounded significantly. It is expected to continue to rebound in the short term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US economic data shows resilience, but there are signs of structural deterioration. The US stock market is oscillating strongly, but attention should be paid to the risks of tariff negotiations and weakening economic data. It is necessary to be vigilant about the risk of a pullback [27]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 572 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation. The Treasury bond futures are expected to be in an oscillating trend, with a higher probability of strengthening in the future. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider buying on dips [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal is stabilizing. With the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia, supply has increased slightly. High - temperature weather supports coal prices, making it difficult for them to decline during the peak season [30]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Iron ore prices have rebounded, with improved spot trading. Although the molten iron output decreased this period, it is expected to remain stable in July, and port inventory will slightly accumulate. The overall trend is difficult to reverse, but it is expected to remain strong in the short term [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The USDA weekly export sales report met expectations. There are rumors about a China - US agreement, but China's purchases of US soybeans remain stagnant. The domestic import cost of soybeans has increased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [35]. 3.2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products is basically flat compared with last week. The demand decline due to high - temperature weather is not obvious. Although the current expectation and fundamentals are strong, the external demand risk remains. It is recommended to use a hedging strategy on rallies for the spot [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The main hog futures contract LH2509 has risen rapidly. The fundamental sentiment is strong, driving the spot price to stabilize and rebound. However, the supply in July - August is still relatively large, and the long - short game intensifies. It is recommended to wait for the signal of pressure from hog sales and then short on rallies [43]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The demand for starch sugar fails to meet expectations. The consumption of corn decreases, while that of corn starch increases slightly. The starch is expected to continue to reduce production to reduce inventory. The factors affecting the CS - C spread are complex, and the future is uncertain [45]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The visible inventory of corn continues to decline, and the first batch of imported corn auctions had high premiums, supporting the strong spot market. It is recommended to wait and see for old - crop contracts and consider shorting new - crop contracts 11 and 01 on rallies [47]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The global cotton supply is stable, while the demand is uncertain. The trade policy is a major variable. The domestic cotton market is supported by a tight supply of old - crop commercial inventory but is dragged down by the weak downstream industry. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The short - term supply - demand is weak, but there is an expectation of strong supply - demand in the long term. The price oscillation center may shift upward. It is recommended to buy on dips [55]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The spread between Shanghai and Guangdong has widened, and the domestic inventory has increased. The macro - situation affects the price, and fundamentally, there is an expectation of oversupply in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Policy rumors drive the polysilicon futures price up, but the fundamentals are not optimistic. The price still has downward pressure. It is recommended to stop profiting from the PS2508 - 2509 positive spread due to high policy - related risks [61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon has increased. The supply side has new changes, and the demand side may be affected by polysilicon production cuts. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [63]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Copper prices are affected by factors such as AI, renewable energy, and tariffs. The US non - farm data affects the dollar index and copper prices. The domestic inventory shows a weak accumulation trend. It is recommended to maintain a long - biased strategy for the short - term high - level oscillation [66]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The cooperation between Fulin Seiko and Chuanfa Longmang is expected to enhance the former's layout in the lithium - battery material industry. The demand in July is better than expected, driving the price up. It is recommended to avoid short - selling in the short term and consider positive - spread arbitrage opportunities [70]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The inventory of LME and SHFE has decreased. The raw - material cost support is weakening, and the supply of nickel is expected to be in surplus. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [73]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemical Industry (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly production of domestic LPG has decreased, and the inventory has also decreased. The fundamentals are weak, and there is no upward price drive [75]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemical Industry (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. The summer temperature will support the price, and the demand for gas - electricity is expected to decline slightly. The NYMEX is expected to oscillate in the short term [78]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemical Industry (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong has increased slightly, with improved demand and increased supply. The futures price has rebounded, but the rebound height is expected to be limited [80]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemical Industry (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable with a slight decline. The futures price is rising slightly. The market is expected to oscillate due to the weak fundamentals [83]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemical Industry (PVC) - The price of PVC powder is narrowly adjusted. The futures price is oscillating. The inventory is turning from decreasing to increasing, and the subsequent market rise may be limited [85]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemical Industry (Styrene) - The weekly production of styrene has decreased slightly. The supply - demand of pure benzene and styrene has different trends. The future supply - demand of styrene is expected to weaken. It is recommended to pay attention to the release rhythm of Yulong's new capacity [86]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemical Industry (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories has been mostly reduced. The factories plan to cut production in July. If the production cuts are implemented, the inventory pressure will be relieved. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to expand the processing margin on dips [88]. 3.2.23 Energy and Chemical Industry (Carbon Emissions) - The EU Commission proposes a flexible 2040 climate target, but there are many internal objections. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short term [90]. 3.2.24 Energy and Chemical Industry (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda - ash manufacturers has increased. The market is in a weak adjustment, with high supply and weak demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling strategy on rallies in the medium term [92]. 3.2.25 Energy and Chemical Industry (Float Glass) - The inventory of float - glass manufacturers has decreased slightly. The futures price has risen slightly, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed much. It is recommended to consider a long - glass and short - soda - ash cross - commodity arbitrage strategy [93].