万联晨会-20250704

Core Insights - The A-share market showed a collective rise on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.9%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,309.587 billion yuan [2][7] - In terms of industry performance, electronics, electrical equipment, and pharmaceutical biology led the gains, while coal, transportation, and steel sectors lagged behind. Concept sectors such as Tonghuashun Fruit Index, 2025 mid-term report pre-increase, and PCB concept saw significant increases, while military restructuring, combustible ice, and domestic aircraft carrier concepts faced declines [2][7] Important News - From January to May 2025, China's service trade steadily grew, with a total import and export value of 32,543.6 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. Exports reached 14,033.7 billion yuan, up by 15.1%, while imports were 18,509.9 billion yuan, up by 2.7%. The service trade deficit was 4,476.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,352.2 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3][8] - The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and six other departments issued a notice regarding the "Action Plan for Optimizing the Departure Tax Refund Consumption Environment in Shanghai (2025-2027)", aiming to have over 3,000 departure tax refund stores and more than 10,000 outlets by 2027, with over 80% of stores offering "immediate purchase and refund" services [3][8] Industry Analysis - The media industry is expected to perform well in 2025, with the Shenwan Media Industry Index rising by 6.41% as of June 20, 2025, ranking third among all Shenwan first-level industries and outperforming the CSI 300 Index and ChiNext Index. The industry valuation (PE-TTM) is currently above the average level of the past seven years [9] - Revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company faced pressure in 2024, but both showed year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, indicating a cyclical change. The second half of 2025 will focus on the dual main lines of IP and AI, with the IP economy expected to grow through the incubation of proprietary IP and collaboration with popular IPs [9] - The report highlights the potential of the IP economy, particularly in products like "谷子" (Guzi), blind boxes, and trading cards, which are becoming key emotional carriers and commercial pathways in the IP ecosystem [10][11] - AI is recognized as a transformative technology with vast development potential across various sectors, including media, advertising, and gaming, enhancing content production efficiency and reducing costs [10][11]