冠通期货资讯早间报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global financial market, including overnight futures market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments in various industries. It also provides insights into the performance of different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Key events like policy decisions, trade negotiations, and corporate actions are also covered, which can potentially impact investment decisions [2][6][27]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Futures Market Trends - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.71% at $3336.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.85% at $37.04 per ounce [2]. - International oil prices dipped slightly, with WTI crude down 0.40% at $67.18 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.32% at $68.89 per barrel [3]. - London base metals closed mixed, with LME nickel up 0.35% at $15355.00 per ton, LME tin up 0.27% at $33805.00 per ton, LME aluminum down 0.55% at $2605.50 per ton, and LME copper down 0.61% at $9951.50 per ton [3]. - CBOT agricultural futures mostly rose, with soybeans up 0.02% at 1048.25 cents per bushel, corn up 0.72% at 421.00 cents per bushel, and wheat down 1.29% at 556.75 cents per bushel [3]. - Most domestic futures contracts advanced, with styrene and iron ore up over 1%, coking coal and caustic soda up nearly 1%. Glass declined nearly 1%, and SC crude rose 0.66% to 507.0 yuan per barrel. Shanghai gold fell 0.40% to 775.68 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.67% to 8926 yuan per kilogram [3]. Important Macroeconomic News - From June 1 - 30, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.032 million units, up 15% year - on - year and 5% month - on - month. Cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.849 million units, up 10% year - on - year [6][34]. - The US initial jobless claims in the week ending June 28 dropped 4000 to 233,000, a six - week low. However, the continued jobless claims in the week ending June 21 remained at a high of 1.964 million [6]. - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than May and market expectations, which may ease the Fed's pressure to cut interest rates [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary warned trade partners that tariffs might rise if no progress was made in trade negotiations [7]. - The US Middle East envoy plans to meet the Iranian foreign minister next week to restart nuclear negotiations [7][41]. - The Fed's Bostic suggested patience before cutting interest rates as inflation may persist and the labor market remains healthy [9]. - Trump may send letters to trade partners on Friday to unilaterally set tariff rates, with July 9 as the negotiation deadline [10]. - The US House of Representatives passed Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of July 3, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises in China was 69.085 million heavy boxes, down 0.19% week - on - week. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8095 million tons, up 2.30% from Monday [12]. - As of June 27, US natural gas inventories were 2953 billion cubic feet, up 55 billion cubic feet from the previous week, down 5.6% year - on - year, and 6.2% higher than the five - year average [12]. - OPEC+ is discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, to be further discussed in an online meeting this weekend [12]. Metal Futures - On July 3, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 552,000 tons, down 10,000 tons week - on - week. Social ordinary warehouses had 126,000 tons, down 2000 tons, and social delivery warehouses had 426,000 tons, up 12,000 tons [15]. - Four new lithium mines in Argentina will be put into production in the coming weeks to months, increasing annual production capacity by 79% to 202,000 metric tons equivalent [15]. - A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi plans to shut down for maintenance for two months, while a plant in Sichuan is operating normally [15]. Black - Series Futures - As of July 3, rebar production increased for the third consecutive week, factory inventory decreased, and social inventory increased, ending a 16 - week decline. Apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2210800 tons, up 1.49%; factory inventory was 1804700 tons, down 2.76%; social inventory was 3647400 tons, up 0.37%; apparent demand was 2248700 tons, up 2.26% [17]. - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants in China was - 52 yuan/ton this week. Profits varied by region [17]. Agricultural Futures - In the 2024/2025 sugar - crushing season, Yunnan Province crushed 18.063 million tons of sugarcane, up 16.91% from the previous season, and produced 2.4188 million tons of sugar, up 19% [19]. - The ICAC predicts that global cotton production will exceed consumption in 2025/26. Production is expected to be 25.9 million tons, consumption 25.6 million tons, and trade volume to increase from 9.3 million to 9.7 million tons [21]. - As of July 2, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.2059 million tons, up from the previous week [21]. - Malaysia's palm oil inventory in June 2025 is expected to be 1.99 million tons, down 0.24% from May; production is expected to be 1.7 million tons, down 4.04% from May; and exports are expected to be 1.45 million tons, up 4.16% from May [21]. - Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports from June 29 to July 5 are expected to increase compared to the previous week [22]. - As of July 1, the percentage of US soybean and corn planting areas affected by drought decreased compared to the previous week [22]. - US private exporters reported sales of 150,000 tons of corn, 226,000 tons of soybeans, and 195,000 tons of soybean meal [22]. - As of June 26, US soybean export net sales in the 2024/2025 season were 462,000 tons, in line with market expectations [23]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending June 29 increased 47.16% to 173,500 tons, and the commercial inventory was 1.2112 million tons [25]. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares rose on Thursday, with consumer electronics and innovative drugs leading the gain. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.18% to 3461.15, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.17%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.9%. Market turnover was 1.33 trillion yuan [27]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.63% to 24069.94, recording five consecutive losses. Southbound funds sold a net 3.048 billion Hong Kong dollars [27]. - Insurance funds have accelerated their pace of stock - market placards. In 2025, the number of placards has reached 18, approaching the 2024 total [27]. - Seven securities firms repurchased 191 million shares worth 2.031 billion yuan in the first half of this year. Analysts expect the valuation of the securities sector to recover [27]. - The China Securities Association announced the list of 12 IPO on - site inspection enterprises in the second batch of 2025 [28]. - The bank convertible bond market is facing a "redemption wave," and about 100 billion yuan of bank convertible bonds may complete conversion this year [30]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will address the low - price and disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry [31]. - The Ministry of Commerce will promote the healthy development of second - hand car exports and will make a final ruling on the anti - dumping investigation of EU brandy [31]. - The National Medical Products Administration proposed ten key measures to support the innovation of high - end medical devices [31]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched a pilot project for number protection services to prevent telecom fraud [31]. - In June, China's warehousing index was 51%, up 0.5 percentage points from May, indicating expansion [32]. - In June, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.032 million units, with new - energy vehicle sales at 1.071 million units, showing significant growth [34]. - Hubei Jingmen introduced 19 real - estate policies, including promoting spot - housing sales from 2026 [35]. - Beijing plans to regulate "second - hand landlords" by requiring registration for those sub - leasing 10 or more units [35]. Overseas - Biden criticized Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill, saying it would harm the public [36]. - Indonesia will sign a $34 billion agreement with the US next week to increase purchases [42]. - Japan's central bank may restart the interest - rate hike cycle as companies agreed to significant pay raises [42]. - The European Central Bank may cut interest rates once this year as inflation risks are more on the downside [43]. - The US technology industry group urges the EU to postpone the implementation of the AI Act [43]. - The UK Prime Minister supports the Finance Minister and reaffirms the fiscal rule of balancing revenue and expenditure by 2029 - 30 [43]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq up 1.02%. Chinese concept stocks had mixed performance [45]. - European stocks also closed higher, with the German DAX up 0.61%, the French CAC40 up 0.21%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.55% [45]. - BlackRock believes that US stocks are the best allocation in the current "risk - on" environment [45]. Commodities - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with gold down and silver up. Geopolitical tensions and Fed policy expectations affect gold prices [46]. - International oil prices dipped slightly due to increased US crude inventories and geopolitical easing. OPEC+ is discussing production increases [46]. - London base metals closed mixed, with aluminum under pressure and a weak supply - demand situation [46]. - Central banks are increasing gold reserves due to the "weaponization" of foreign exchange [48]. Bonds - Domestic bank - bond yields were stable with a slight decline, and the money market was more liquid. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [49]. - Since May, the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds has been booming, with over 419 bonds issued worth over 620 billion yuan [49]. - US bond yields rose due to strong labor - market data, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts decreased [49]. - Japan successfully issued 30 - year bonds, providing some relief to the bond market [50]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Thursday, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up [51]. - The US dollar strengthened as US bond yields rose, and most non - US currencies declined [53].