宝城期货国债期货早报-20250704

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of Treasury bond futures is to maintain a sideways consolidation trend in the short term. The logic for the upward movement of Treasury bond futures in the medium to long term is relatively solid, and the downside space is limited [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term view is sideways, and the intraday view is sideways to the weak side. The core logic is that the manufacturing PMI data is marginally improving, and the probability of an interest rate cut in the short term is not high [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is sideways to the weak side, and the medium - term view is sideways. The reference view is sideways. Yesterday, Treasury bond futures were all in a narrow sideways consolidation. With the gradual disappearance of tax - period factors, market liquidity has shifted from a tight state at the end of June to a loose state. Recently, the central bank has started to conduct net withdrawals of liquidity in the open market. In the overall macro - environment, a relatively loose monetary environment is still needed in the second half of the year to support demand and stabilize expectations. The endogenous growth momentum of domestic demand is insufficient, and external demand is affected by tariff factors. Although the possibility of further interest rate cuts in the short term is not high, the downside space of Treasury bond futures is limited as market interest rates are always anchored by policy interest rates [5].