宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250704

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weak. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the oscillating rise of steel prices [2]. - Policy利好 expectations are fermenting, and market sentiment is warm. Rebar futures prices continue to oscillate higher. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and weekly output is increasing, with supply pressure reaching a high level. Demand is running smoothly, and high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded under the stimulation of speculative demand, but they are still at a low level in the same period, and the improvement space in the off - season is questionable. The supply and demand at both ends have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season. The relatively good news is that the inventory is low, the real - world contradiction is not significant, and recent policy利好 is fermenting, supporting the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and slightly weak. The reference view is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the game between expectations and reality, leading to the oscillating rise of steel prices [2]. - The calculation method of the rise - fall range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night sessions and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night sessions as the starting price, and the day - session closing price on the same day as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is considered oscillating and slightly weak, a rise of 0 - 1% is considered oscillating and slightly strong, and a rise of more than 1% is considered a rise. Oscillating and slightly strong/weak are only for intraday views, and no distinction is made for the short - term and medium - term [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Policy利好 expectations are fermenting, market sentiment is warm, and rebar futures prices continue to oscillate higher [3]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are actively producing, weekly output is increasing, and supply pressure has reached a high level. Demand is running smoothly, high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded under the stimulation of speculative demand, but they are still at a low level in the same period, and the improvement space in the off - season is questionable [3]. - The supply and demand at both ends have increased, and the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel price is prone to pressure in the off - season. The relatively good news is that the inventory is low, the real - world contradiction is not significant, and recent policy利好 is fermenting, supporting the short - term strong operation of steel prices. Attention should be paid to the policy implementation [3].