美国就业系列十五：非农超预期释放韧性，市场降息预期后移

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The US labor market is gradually changing with the continuation of the Fed's high - interest - rate policy. The labor market shows characteristics of two - way weakening in supply and demand, and the slowdown in wage growth provides more flexibility for policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recruitment and Vacancies - As of June 2025, the monthly average of recruitment plans dropped slightly to 31.91 million, a decrease of nearly 5,500 from the May average, compared to 127,000 in 2021 and 104,000 in 2019 [3]. - As of June 2025, the revised non - government job vacancies rose to 6.936 million, but continued to slow down compared to the peak of over 10 million in 2022, with the manufacturing gap dropping to 414,000 [3]. Non - farm Employment - As of June 2025, the total new non - farm employment increased by 147,000, including 73,000 in the government and 74,000 in enterprises [3]. - In terms of industry structure, education and healthcare and hotels added 51,000 and 20,000 respectively, and the information service industry added 3,000 in June. The increments in different industries decreased to varying degrees compared to May [3]. - The unemployment rate in June dropped by 0.1 percentage point [3]. Wage Growth - As of June 2025, the average weekly wage growth rate of non - farm employment was revised down to 3.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the pre - revision in May, maintaining the downward trend since the low of 4.1% in April this year [4]. - In June, the wage growth rate of the commodity production sector was + 3.1%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points, and that of the service production sector was + 3.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points [4]. - The current US labor market shows characteristics of two - way weakening in supply and demand. Recruitment demand continues to slow down, and labor supply growth is limited [4].