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尿素:窄幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-04 01:31

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the urea market enters a waiting period. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in early July, with supply - side centralized maintenance leading to lower operating rates and daily output, and demand - side trade - related export pick - up preventing significant short - term inventory build - up. However, export information is uncertain. The main concerns are spot trading and overall commodity sentiment [3][4]. - In the medium - term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main contradictions. Domestic demand is weak due to pre - empted agricultural demand and high inventories of middle - stream traders. With an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, there is still significant long - term pressure on urea, and the price center may gradually decline [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - Futures Market (Urea Main Contract 09): The closing price was 1,737 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,733 yuan/ton (up 3 yuan), the trading volume was 155,952 lots (down 108,465 lots), the open interest was 222,192 lots (down 1,691 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 500 tons (unchanged), and the trading volume was 540.519 million yuan (down 374.532 million yuan) [2]. - Basis: The Shandong regional basis was 63 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan), the Fengxi - to - futures basis was - 77 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), and the Dongguang - to - futures basis (cheapest deliverable) was 23 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [2]. - Monthly Spread: The UR09 - UR01 spread for Henan Xinlianxin was 38 (1,810) (down 320) [2]. - Spot Market: Factory prices of some enterprises changed. For example, Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,500 yuan/ton (down 60 yuan), and Shanxi Fengxi was 1,660 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan). Trader prices in Shandong were 1,800 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan) [2]. - Supply - side Indicators: The operating rate was 84.49% (down 1.68 percentage points), and the daily output was 195,610 tons (down 3,900 tons) [2]. 3.2 Industry News - As of July 2, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0185 million tons, a decrease of 77,400 tons from the previous week, a 7.06% week - on - week decrease. Some provinces saw inventory increases, while others saw decreases [3]. - Short - term: The spot market has improved, and prices have risen slightly. The market is in a waiting period due to expected marginal improvement in fundamentals in early July and uncertain export information [3][4]. - Medium - term: Supply pressure and weak domestic demand are the main issues. Domestic demand is weak because of pre - empted agricultural demand and high - inventory middle - stream traders, and long - term price pressure is high [4]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [4].