沥青：暂时震荡，关注地缘

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is currently in a temporary oscillation state, and geopolitical factors should be closely monitored [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Information: The closing prices of BU2507 and BU2508 were 3,622 yuan/ton and 3,608 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.44% and 0.56%. The night - session closing prices were 3,633 yuan/ton and 3,619 yuan/ton, with night - session increases of 0.30%. The trading volume of BU2507 was 1,426 lots (a decrease of 769 lots), and the position was 2,544 lots (a decrease of 600 lots). The trading volume of BU2508 was 3,514 lots (an increase of 12 lots), and the position was 18,131 lots (a decrease of 852 lots). The total market warehouse receipts of asphalt were 95,510 lots with no change [1] - Spread Information: The basis (Shandong - 07) was 198 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan compared to the previous day. The 07 - 08 inter - period spread was 14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan. The Shandong - South China spread was 190 (unit not specified), a decrease of 25. The East China - South China spread was 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [1] - Spot Market Information: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,820 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,780 yuan/ton with no change. The refinery operating rate was 33.45%, a decrease of 0.73% compared to the previous period. The refinery inventory rate was 27.13%, an increase of 0.50% [1] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral state. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [7] 3.3 Market Information - Production: From June 27 to July 3, 2025, the weekly total output of domestic asphalt was 559,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,000 tons (0.9%) and a year - on - year increase of 121,000 tons (27.6%). The cumulative output from January to June was 16.714 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.329 million tons (8.6%) [10] - Inventory: As of July 3, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 796,000 tons, a 1.1% increase compared to June 30. The refinery warehouses in the Northeast region had the largest inventory increase. The total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.813 million tons, a 0.1% decrease compared to June 30. The social warehouses in Shandong had a more obvious inventory reduction [10]