Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Carbonate Lithium: Accumulation Pattern Continues, Focus on Upside Space" [1] - Report date: July 4, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core View - The accumulation pattern of carbonate lithium continues, and attention should be paid to the upside space [1] Group 4: Fundamental Tracking 1. Futures Market Data - 2507 contract: Closing price is 64,300, up 320 from T - 1; trading volume is 764, down 599 from T - 1; open interest is 5,575, down 2,135 from T - 1 [2] - 2509 contract: Closing price is 64,080, up 120 from T - 1; trading volume is 420,967, down 119,468 from T - 1; open interest is 334,057, up 8,483 from T - 1 [2] 2. Warehouse Receipts and Basis - Warehouse receipts: 22,880 lots, down 300 from T - 1 [2] - Basis: Spot - 2507 is - 2,200, up 130 from T - 1; Spot - 2509 is - 1,980, up 330 from T - 1; 2507 - 2509 is 220, up 200 from T - 1 [2] 3. Raw Materials and Lithium Salts - Lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China): Price is 652, up 20 from T - 1 [2] - Lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%): Price is 1,315, up 40 from T - 1 [2] - Battery - grade carbonate lithium: Price is 62,100, up 450 from T - 1 [2] - Industrial - grade carbonate lithium: Price is 60,500, up 450 from T - 1 [2] 4. Downstream Products - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): Price is 30,660, up 110 from T - 1 [2] - Ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type): Price is 105,460, up 50 from T - 1 [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price is 61,638 yuan/ton, up 306 yuan/ton from the previous working day; average price of battery - grade carbonate lithium is 61,650 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton; average price of industrial - grade carbonate lithium is 60,050 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [3] - This week, the production of carbonate lithium is 18,123 tons, a decrease of 644 tons from last week; the industry - wide inventory is 138,347 tons, an increase of 1,510 tons from last week [3] - On July 3, 2025, it was rumored that two domestic lithium salt smelters would shut down for maintenance. A lithium salt plant in Jiangxi has a maintenance plan and is initially planned to shut down for 2 months; a lithium salt plant in Sichuan is operating at full capacity [4] Group 6: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of carbonate lithium is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [4]
碳酸锂:累库格局延续,关注上方空间
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-07-04 01:38