宝城期货原油早报：地缘风险增强，原油震荡偏强-20250704

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][5] 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil 2508 contract is expected to run strongly. In the short - term (within a week), it will be in a volatile state; in the medium - term (two weeks to a month), it will also be volatile; and on the day, it will be volatile and tend to be strong [1][5] 3) Summary According to Relevant Content - Price and Performance: On Thursday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2508 contract maintained a volatile and strong trend, with the futures price rising sharply by 0.66% to 507.0 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5] - Driving Logic: The Middle - East geopolitical risk has emerged again due to Israel's air strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon. After a previous significant decline, the confidence of oil market bulls has increased again, and the geopolitical premium has rebounded. With the arrival of the peak oil - using season in the Northern Hemisphere, the demand factor for crude oil has come into play [5]