宝城期货甲醇早报-20250704

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, with a general view of a moderately strong operation. The domestic methanol futures contract 2509 may maintain a moderately strong and fluctuating trend on Friday [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Conditions - On Thursday night, domestic methanol futures maintained a moderately strong and fluctuating trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.66% to 2,424 yuan/ton [5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - Supply side: Domestic methanol production capacity is continuously being released, increasing internal supply pressure. Overseas shipments are constantly arriving at ports, increasing external supply expectations, and ports are entering a inventory accumulation cycle [5]. - Demand side: Downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the supply - demand structure has become looser [5]. - Policy aspect: Recent high - level meetings in China have set the tone for a new round of supply - side reforms, which may boost domestic commodity futures [5].