东吴证券晨会纪要-20250704

Macro Strategy - The macroeconomic environment shows a structural differentiation in domestic demand while external demand remains stable overall [1][10] - The ECI supply index is at 50.12%, slightly down from last week, while the demand index is at 49.94%, showing a slight recovery [10] - The U.S. GDP growth forecast for Q2 has been significantly revised upward due to the easing of trade tensions and the end of "import rush" behavior among wholesalers [12] Fixed Income Analysis - The report on Japanese residents' wealth allocation over 30 years highlights a shift from non-financial assets to diversified financial assets, influenced by macroeconomic cycles and demographic changes [2][15] - The low-interest-rate environment has pressured fixed-income returns, leading to a gradual increase in equity asset allocation among Japanese residents [15][16] - The introduction of policies like NISA and iDeCo has encouraged long-term investment strategies, moving away from traditional savings [15][16] Company-Specific Insights - Wuhan Tianyuan (301127) is projected to achieve net profits of 5.0/6.1/7.5 billion CNY from 2025 to 2027, reflecting growth rates of +50%/+22%/+23% [7] - China Water Affairs (00855.HK) shows stable core operational growth with a cash flow turning point, despite a forecasted decline in FY2025 net profit due to one-time impairment [7] - Juchip Technology (688049) is positioned as a leader in the smart audio SoC market, with strong growth expected in 2024, driven by increasing demand for wireless audio products [8][9] Convertible Bond Analysis - The Libor convertible bond is expected to list at a price between 128.57 and 142.73 CNY, with a subscription rate of 0.0028% [5][17] - The Ber 25 convertible bond is projected to list at a price between 118.12 and 131.40 CNY, with a subscription rate of 0.0122% [6][20]