美国6月非农超出预期，打消7月降息预期

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for the dollar is "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, dispelling the expectation of an interest rate cut in July. The employment market remained resilient, but its structure deteriorated. The data supported the Fed to continue to observe cautiously. Market expectations of an interest rate cut cooled further after the data release [1][2][3] - Strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. However, the market underestimated the deterioration of the employment market structure, and the subsequent weakening of the employment market might cause disturbances [4][40] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US June Non - farm Payrolls Situation - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, exceeding the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected and the previous value [2][9] - In terms of industries, new jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (51,000), leisure and hospitality (20,000), and government departments (73,000). Layoffs increased in some sectors such as professional and business services (7,000), wholesale (6,600), and other services (5,000) [2][18] 2. Investment Advice - The overall strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. The market was trading around tariff negotiations and tax cut bills. The implementation of the tax cut bill continued to support market risk appetite. The dollar and US Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, US stocks were oscillating strongly, and gold still faced a correction risk [4][40]